FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Vasyl

Kurko

DMUkraine · Obolon Kyiv

№ 512496Emerging €416k −0.04

Player dossierPremier Liha

VasylKurko

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Obolon Kyiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
30
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Kurko at €400k. Model A, which never saw Kurko during training, estimates €416k: the market value is 4% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €873k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.04A €416k▼ −0.78B €873k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
2,860
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
33/44
Min / app
65
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kurko…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €416k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Vasyl Kurko's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 25th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 55th, Starts 61st, Minutes, last 365 days 55th, European club minutes 30th25thGoals8thAssists55thMinutes61stStarts55thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

75% this player69% midfielder median61st percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2018
Peak
€400k
Dec 2023
Model target
€400k
Dec 2025
Valuations
16
5 club changes
Dec 2025€400kObolon KyivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €400k, Obolon Kyiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-01-04€50kZhemchuzhyna Odesa
2018-05-27€75kVolyn Lutsk
2018-12-02€125kVolyn Lutsk
2019-06-16€150kVolyn Lutsk
2019-12-18€175kVolyn Lutsk
2020-08-18€150kWithout Club
2021-01-14€100kWithout Club
2021-06-17€100kPrykarpattya-Blago Ivano-Frankivsk
2022-07-01€100kNK Veres Rivne
2022-12-06€200kNK Veres Rivne
2023-06-21€300kNK Veres Rivne
2023-12-11€400kNK Veres Rivne
2024-06-06€400kNK Veres Rivne
2024-12-17€300kObolon Kyiv
2025-06-10€400kObolon Kyiv
2025-12-18€400kObolon Kyiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.039

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 40% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 12% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kurko appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).