FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Gianluca Busio

Gianluca

Busio

CMUnited States · Venezia FC

№ 504209Established €4.5M +0.21

Close-up

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

GianlucaBusio

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Venezia FC
League
Serie A
Nationality
United States
Age
23
Height
172 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
11 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Busio at €5.5M. Model A, which never saw Busio during training, estimates €4.5M: the market value is 23% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.23. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.21A €4.5M▲ +1.26B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
33
Minutes
2,527
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
28/33
Min / app
77
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Busio…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5.5MModel A €4.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Gianluca Busio's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 30th44thGoals8thAssists49thMinutes78thStarts51stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

85% this player69% midfielder median78th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Nov 2018
Peak
€10M
Dec 2021
Model target
€5.5M
Dec 2025
Valuations
20
2 club changes
Dec 2025€5.5MVenezia FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €5.5M, Venezia FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-11-15€200kSwope Park Rangers
2019-05-27€800kSwope Park Rangers
2019-11-30€2.8MSporting Kansas City
2020-04-08€2.5MSporting Kansas City
2020-08-26€3.5MSporting Kansas City
2020-11-13€4MSporting Kansas City
2020-12-18€4MSporting Kansas City
2021-07-09€6MSporting Kansas City
2021-10-14€7MVenezia FC
2021-12-28€10MVenezia FC
2022-06-07€8.5MVenezia FC
2022-09-27€7MVenezia FC
2022-12-22€5MVenezia FC
2023-06-12€3.7MVenezia FC
2023-12-27€4.3MVenezia FC
2024-06-03€6.5MVenezia FC
2024-12-18€6.5MVenezia FC
2025-06-17€6MVenezia FC
2025-10-06€5MVenezia FC
2025-12-11€5.5MVenezia FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.208

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 50% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€5.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 68% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Busio appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).