Tomás
Araújo
CBPortugal · SL Benfica
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierLiga Portugal
TomásAraújo
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- SL Benfica
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 187 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Araújo at €30M. Model A, which never saw Araújo during training, estimates €21M: the market value is 43% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €18.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 75
- Minutes
- 5,845
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 5
- Started
- 68/75
- Min / app
- 78
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Araújo…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €30M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
27% this player0% defender median92nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €200k
- Nov 2020
- Peak
- €32M
- Mar 2025
- Model target
- €30M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 15
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €30M, SL Benfica. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-02 | €200k | SL Benfica U23 |
| 2021-06-29 | €600k | SL Benfica U23 |
| 2022-04-01 | €1M | SL Benfica B |
| 2022-05-31 | €2M | SL Benfica B |
| 2022-11-01 | €2M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2023-03-02 | €3M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2023-06-16 | €5M | Gil Vicente FC |
| 2023-12-27 | €5M | SL Benfica |
| 2024-06-06 | €7M | SL Benfica |
| 2024-10-08 | €15M | SL Benfica |
| 2024-12-19 | €28M | SL Benfica |
| 2025-03-31 | €32M | SL Benfica |
| 2025-05-30 | €32M | SL Benfica |
| 2025-12-18 | €28M | SL Benfica |
| 2026-05-28 | €30M | SL Benfica |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.356
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 96% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 95% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Araújo appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SuárezCFSporting CP · Liga Portugal€30M
- ZalazarAMSC Braga · Liga Portugal€30M
- SchjelderupLWSL Benfica · Liga Portugal€30M
- VeigaAMFC Porto · Liga Portugal€30M
- LigtCBManchester United · defenders€30M
- WhiteRBArsenal FC · defenders€30M
- DalotRBManchester United · defenders€30M
- BuongiornoCBSSC Napoli · defenders€30M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).