FairValue

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Rafael

Brito

DMPortugal · Casa Pia AC

№ 504075Emerging €1.2M −0.67

Player dossierLiga Portugal

RafaelBrito

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Casa Pia AC
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Portugal
Age
24
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Brito at €600k. Model A, which never saw Brito during training, estimates €1.2M: the market value is 49% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.96. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.67A €1.2M▼ −0.91B €1.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
2,528
Goals
2
Assists
2
Started
30/47
Min / app
54
Cards
10Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Brito…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €1.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Rafael Brito's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 44th, Assists per 90 40th, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 50th, European club minutes 30th44thGoals40thAssists49thMinutes40thStarts50thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

1,520 this player1,541 midfielder median50th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,800

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€700k
Dec 2019
Peak
€850k
Jun 2022
Model target
€600k
May 2026
Valuations
14
2 club changes
May 2026€600kCasa Pia ACValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €600k, Casa Pia AC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-12-31€700kSL Benfica B
2020-04-08€625kSL Benfica B
2020-11-02€700kSL Benfica B
2021-06-29€600kSL Benfica B
2022-04-01€750kSL Benfica B
2022-06-27€850kSL Benfica B
2022-11-01€700kCS Marítimo
2023-06-16€350kCS Marítimo
2023-12-27€300kCasa Pia AC
2024-06-06€300kCasa Pia AC
2024-12-19€400kCasa Pia AC
2025-05-30€500kCasa Pia AC
2025-12-18€400kCasa Pia AC
2026-05-28€600kCasa Pia AC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.672

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 27% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Brito appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).