Karl
Hein
GKEstonia · SV Werder Bremen
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierBundesliga
KarlHein
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- SV Werder Bremen
- League
- Bundesliga
- Nationality
- Estonia
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 193 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 27 May 2026
BundesligaReading the valuation
The market values Hein at €3M. Model A, which never saw Hein during training, estimates €3M: the market value is 2% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 34
- Minutes
- 3,015
- Started
- 34/34
- Min / app
- 89
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hein…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €500k
- Dec 2019
- Peak
- €3M
- Oct 2024
- Model target
- €3M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 12
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €3M, SV Werder Bremen. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-12-10 | €500k | Arsenal FC U23 |
| 2020-04-08 | €450k | Arsenal FC U23 |
| 2022-06-15 | €800k | Arsenal FC U23 |
| 2022-11-03 | €1.5M | Arsenal FC |
| 2023-10-09 | €1.5M | Arsenal FC |
| 2023-12-19 | €2M | Arsenal FC |
| 2024-05-27 | €2M | Arsenal FC |
| 2024-10-11 | €3M | Real Valladolid CF |
| 2024-12-27 | €3M | Real Valladolid CF |
| 2025-06-09 | €3M | Real Valladolid CF |
| 2025-12-19 | €3M | SV Werder Bremen |
| 2026-05-27 | €3M | SV Werder Bremen |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.016
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Bundesliga451 players · median €5M
Valued above 31% of the 451 Bundesliga players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 68% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Hein appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GötzeAMEintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga€3M
- ArnoldCMVfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga€3M
- WeiserRBSV Werder Bremen · Bundesliga€3M
- CanCBBorussia Dortmund · Bundesliga€3M
- StegenGKGirona FC · goalkeepers€3M
- VlachodimosGKSevilla FC · goalkeepers€3M
- SchwäbeGK1.FC Köln · goalkeepers€3M
- ProvedelGKSS Lazio · goalkeepers€3M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).