FairValue

Checking model

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Ludovit

Reis

CMNetherlands · Club Brugge KV

№ 490884Established €1M +1.06

Player dossierPro League

LudovitReis

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Club Brugge KV
League
Pro League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
26
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Reis at €3M. Model A, which never saw Reis during training, estimates €1M: the market value is 188% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €901k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.06A €1M▲ +1.20B €901k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
11
Minutes
487
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
6/11
Min / app
44
Cards
1Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Reis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Ludovit Reis's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 10th, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 1st, Starts 27th, Minutes, last 365 days 12th, European club minutes 96th10thGoals8thAssists1stMinutes27thStarts12thRecent96thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

30% this player0% midfielder median96th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2017
Peak
€7M
Jun 2025
Model target
€3M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
4 club changes
Jun 2026€3MClub Brugge KVValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3M, Club Brugge KV. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-01€50kFC Groningen
2017-10-26€200kFC Groningen
2018-01-17€900kFC Groningen
2018-06-12€900kFC Groningen
2018-12-28€1.3MFC Groningen
2019-06-12€3MFC Groningen
2019-09-10€3MFC Barcelona B
2020-02-11€3MFC Barcelona B
2020-04-08€2.7MFC Barcelona B
2020-10-08€2.5MVfL Osnabrück
2021-02-08€2MVfL Osnabrück
2021-06-16€2MVfL Osnabrück
2021-12-15€2.5MHamburger SV
2022-03-23€3MHamburger SV
2022-06-16€3MHamburger SV
2022-09-28€4MHamburger SV
2022-11-30€5MHamburger SV
2023-03-31€6MHamburger SV
2023-06-28€6MHamburger SV
2023-12-15€6MHamburger SV
2024-03-22€5MHamburger SV
2024-06-06€4.5MHamburger SV
2024-09-25€3.5MHamburger SV
2024-12-19€3.5MHamburger SV
2025-06-19€7MHamburger SV
2025-12-10€6MClub Brugge KV
2026-03-13€4.5MClub Brugge KV
2026-06-04€3MClub Brugge KV

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.057

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 67% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Reis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).