FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Portrait of Randal Kolo Muani

Randal Kolo

Muani

CFFrance · Tottenham Hotspur

№ 487969Elite €24.2M −0.19

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

Randal KoloMuani

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Tottenham Hotspur
League
Premier League
Nationality
France
Age
27
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Muani at €20M. Model A, which never saw Muani during training, estimates €24.2M: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.21. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €23.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.19A €24.2M▼ −0.17B €23.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
4,309
Goals
17
Assists
8
Started
47/77
Min / app
56
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Muani…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €20M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €20MModel A €24.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Randal Kolo Muani's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 68th, Assists per 90 58th, Minutes, two years 84th, Starts 54th, Minutes, last 365 days 85th, European club minutes 86th68thGoals58thAssists84thMinutes54thStarts85thRecent86thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

22% this player0% attacker median86th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Oct 2017
Peak
€80M
Jun 2023
Model target
€20M
Jun 2026
Valuations
28
4 club changes
Jun 2026€20MTottenham HotspurValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €20M, Tottenham Hotspur. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-10-12€150kFC Nantes
2018-01-24€150kFC Nantes
2018-06-04€150kFC Nantes
2018-12-17€150kFC Nantes
2019-06-03€300kFC Nantes
2020-08-03€300kFC Nantes
2020-10-15€2.5MFC Nantes
2021-01-07€5MFC Nantes
2021-04-09€7MFC Nantes
2021-06-04€9MFC Nantes
2021-10-08€10MFC Nantes
2021-12-16€12MFC Nantes
2022-03-23€15MFC Nantes
2022-05-30€16MFC Nantes
2022-09-21€20MEintracht Frankfurt
2022-11-09€30MEintracht Frankfurt
2022-12-23€37MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-03-29€65MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-06-22€80MEintracht Frankfurt
2023-12-18€70MParis Saint-Germain
2024-03-19€60MParis Saint-Germain
2024-06-03€45MParis Saint-Germain
2024-10-07€40MParis Saint-Germain
2024-12-10€30MParis Saint-Germain
2025-06-17€30MJuventus FC
2025-12-09€25MTottenham Hotspur
2026-03-09€22MTottenham Hotspur
2026-06-03€20MTottenham Hotspur

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.192

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 54% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 87% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€20MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Muani appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).