FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Filip

Krastev

AMBulgaria · Göztepe

№ 486814Established €1.6M +0.60

Player dossierSüper Lig

FilipKrastev

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Göztepe
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Bulgaria
Age
24
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Krastev at €3M. Model A, which never saw Krastev during training, estimates €1.6M: the market value is 82% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.82. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.60A €1.6M▲ +0.56B €1.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
44
Minutes
2,797
Goals
6
Assists
7
Started
32/44
Min / app
64
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Krastev…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €1.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Filip Krastev's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 81st, Assists per 90 89th, Minutes, two years 54th, Starts 57th, Minutes, last 365 days 14th, European club minutes 30th81stGoals89thAssists54thMinutes57thStarts14thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.23 this player0.09 midfielder median89th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.74

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2019
Peak
€4M
Mar 2023
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
22
7 club changes
May 2026€3MGöztepeValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, Göztepe. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-24€50kSlavia Sofia
2019-06-24€100kSlavia Sofia
2020-02-02€100kSlavia Sofia
2020-03-09€150kSlavia Sofia
2020-12-21€900kSlavia Sofia
2021-06-25€800kESTAC Troyes
2022-01-05€500kSC Cambuur Leeuwarden
2022-04-05€600kLevski Sofia
2022-05-31€900kLevski Sofia
2022-09-07€1.2MLevski Sofia
2022-11-28€1.5MLevski Sofia
2023-03-03€4MLevski Sofia
2023-06-05€4MLevski Sofia
2023-08-22€4MLos Angeles FC
2023-12-18€4MLos Angeles FC
2024-03-18€3MPEC Zwolle
2024-05-31€3MPEC Zwolle
2024-10-14€3.5MPEC Zwolle
2024-12-17€3MPEC Zwolle
2025-05-28€4MPEC Zwolle
2025-12-03€3.5MOxford United
2026-05-21€3MGöztepe

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.601

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 73% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 56% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Krastev appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).