FairValue

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Nathan

Rôdes

DMBelgium · FCV Dender EH

№ 481171Emerging €1.1M −0.63

Player dossierPro League

NathanRôdes

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
FCV Dender EH
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
28
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Rôdes at €600k. Model A, which never saw Rôdes during training, estimates €1.1M: the market value is 47% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.88. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €4.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.63A €1.1M▼ −2.06B €4.7M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
63
Minutes
4,624
Goals
3
Assists
1
Started
52/63
Min / app
73
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Rôdes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €600k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €600kModel A €1.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Nathan Rôdes's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 38th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 82nd, Starts 74th, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 30th38thGoals17thAssists82ndMinutes74thStarts64thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,624 this player2,607 midfielder median82nd percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jul 2017
Peak
€1.4M
Jun 2025
Model target
€600k
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
2 club changes
Jun 2026€600kFCV Dender EHValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €600k, FCV Dender EH. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-07-25€50kRoyal Charleroi SC
2018-01-09€50kRoyal Charleroi SC
2018-06-03€50kRoyal Charleroi SC
2018-12-27€50kRoyal Charleroi SC
2019-06-10€50kRoyal Charleroi SC
2019-07-19€75kUnion Titus Petange
2020-01-15€50kUnion Titus Petange
2022-10-05€200kFCV Dender EH
2022-12-22€200kFCV Dender EH
2023-05-30€250kFCV Dender EH
2023-12-28€300kFCV Dender EH
2024-06-20€500kFCV Dender EH
2024-10-02€650kFCV Dender EH
2024-12-11€800kFCV Dender EH
2025-03-26€1.1MFCV Dender EH
2025-06-12€1.4MFCV Dender EH
2025-12-10€1MFCV Dender EH
2026-03-13€700kFCV Dender EH
2026-06-04€600kFCV Dender EH

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.630

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 13% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 20% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€600kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Rôdes appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).