FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Félix

Correia

LWPortugal · LOSC Lille

№ 479648Elite €27M −0.99

Player dossierLigue 1

FélixCorreia

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
LOSC Lille
League
Ligue 1
Nationality
Portugal
Age
25
Height
178 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
1 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Correia at €10M. Model A, which never saw Correia during training, estimates €27M: the market value is 63% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.70. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €30.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.99A €27M▼ −1.10B €30.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
79
Minutes
5,719
Goals
14
Assists
10
Started
67/79
Min / app
72
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Correia…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €27M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Félix Correia's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 42nd, Assists per 90 54th, Minutes, two years 96th, Starts 89th, Minutes, last 365 days 93rd, European club minutes 75th42ndGoals54thAssists96thMinutes89thStarts93rdRecent75thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,719 this player2,242 attacker median96th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€900k
Jan 2020
Peak
€10M
Dec 2025
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
19
6 club changes
Jun 2026€10MLOSC LilleValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, LOSC Lille. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-01-17€900kAZ Alkmaar U21
2020-04-08€800kAZ Alkmaar U21
2020-06-29€1MAZ Alkmaar U21
2021-01-11€1.2MJuventus U23
2021-06-21€2MJuventus U23
2021-12-29€1.6MParma Calcio 1913
2022-06-06€1.5MParma Calcio 1913
2022-12-19€1.2MJuventus Next Gen
2023-06-16€1.2MCS Marítimo
2023-12-27€1.5MGil Vicente FC
2024-03-08€2MGil Vicente FC
2024-06-06€2.5MGil Vicente FC
2024-10-08€3MGil Vicente FC
2024-12-19€3.5MGil Vicente FC
2025-03-31€4MGil Vicente FC
2025-05-30€4MGil Vicente FC
2025-10-10€7MLOSC Lille
2025-12-15€10MLOSC Lille
2026-06-01€10MLOSC Lille

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.994

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Ligue 1423 players · median €5M

Valued above 66% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 77% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Correia appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).