FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Daniel James

Daniel

James

RWWales · Leeds United

№ 319301Elite €6M +0.50

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

DanielJames

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
Leeds United
League
Premier League
Nationality
Wales
Age
28
Height
171 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values James at €10M. Model A, which never saw James during training, estimates €6M: the market value is 65% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.65. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €678k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.50A €6M▲ +2.69B €678k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
21
Minutes
629
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
7/21
Min / app
30
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for James…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Daniel James's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 3rd, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 7th, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 20th, European club minutes 28th3rdGoals6thAssists7thMinutes14thStarts20thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% attacker median28th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2018
Peak
€28M
Dec 2019
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
4 club changes
Jun 2026€10MLeeds UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Leeds United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-09-24€100kSwansea City
2019-02-27€3MSwansea City
2019-06-28€12MSwansea City
2019-09-12€25MManchester United
2019-12-10€28MManchester United
2020-04-08€22.5MManchester United
2020-07-30€19MManchester United
2020-10-13€16MManchester United
2021-03-18€18MManchester United
2021-05-25€18MManchester United
2021-12-23€18MLeeds United
2022-06-15€18MLeeds United
2022-11-03€16MFulham FC
2023-03-16€13MFulham FC
2023-06-20€12MLeeds United
2023-12-21€14MLeeds United
2024-05-24€14MLeeds United
2024-12-30€16MLeeds United
2025-03-28€18MLeeds United
2025-05-27€18MLeeds United
2025-10-17€16MLeeds United
2025-12-09€14MLeeds United
2026-03-09€12MLeeds United
2026-06-03€10MLeeds United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.503

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 77% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where James appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).