Tiago
Gouveia
RWPortugal · OGC Nice
Player dossierLigue 1
TiagoGouveia
RWRight WingerAttack
- Club
- OGC Nice
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 176 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Ligue 1Reading the valuation
The market values Gouveia at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Gouveia during training, estimates €3.8M: the market value is 8% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 32
- Minutes
- 1,080
- Goals
- 3
- Assists
- 2
- Started
- 10/32
- Min / app
- 34
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Gouveia…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
42% this player0% attacker median98th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Nov 2020
- Peak
- €5M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €3.5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 4 club changes
Jun 2026: €3.5M, OGC Nice. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-11-02 | €100k | SL Benfica B |
| 2021-06-29 | €350k | SL Benfica B |
| 2022-04-01 | €575k | SL Benfica |
| 2022-05-31 | €1.5M | SL Benfica |
| 2022-11-01 | €2.5M | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2023-06-16 | €3.5M | GD Estoril Praia |
| 2023-12-27 | €3.5M | SL Benfica |
| 2024-06-06 | €5M | SL Benfica |
| 2024-12-19 | €5M | SL Benfica |
| 2025-03-31 | €4M | SL Benfica |
| 2025-05-30 | €4M | SL Benfica |
| 2025-12-15 | €4M | OGC Nice |
| 2026-06-01 | €3.5M | OGC Nice |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.085
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 35% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 56% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Gouveia appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- SansonCMOGC Nice · Ligue 1€3.5M
- YaremchukCFOlympique Lyon · Ligue 1€3.5M
- KöhnGKAS Monaco · Ligue 1€3.5M
- KrassoCFParis FC · Ligue 1€3.5M
- FüllkrugCFAC Milan · attackers€3.5M
- IngsCFSheffield United · attackers€3.5M
- BernardeschiRWBologna FC 1909 · attackers€3.5M
- TabakovicCFBorussia Mönchengladbach · attackers€3.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).