FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Christos

Sielis

CBCyprus · Panetolikos

№ 470240Emerging €688k +0.02

Player dossierSuper League

ChristosSielis

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Panetolikos
League
Super League
Nationality
Cyprus
Age
26
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Sielis at €700k. Model A, which never saw Sielis during training, estimates €688k: the market value is 2% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.02A €688k▼ −0.72B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
47
Minutes
3,958
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
45/47
Min / app
84
Cards
16Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sielis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €688k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Christos Sielis's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 39th, Minutes, two years 68th, Starts 86th, Minutes, last 365 days 59th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals39thAssists68thMinutes86thStarts59thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

96% this player83% defender median86th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Sept 2019
Peak
€800k
May 2023
Model target
€700k
Jun 2026
Valuations
15
3 club changes
Jun 2026€700kPanetolikosValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €700k, Panetolikos. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-24€100kAPOEL Nicosia
2020-01-06€150kAPOEL Nicosia
2020-10-06€200kAPOEL Nicosia
2021-05-14€500kAPOEL Nicosia
2021-12-08€500kLevski Sofia
2022-06-09€400kVolos NFC
2022-11-07€600kVolos NFC
2023-05-22€800kVolos NFC
2023-12-20€800kVolos NFC
2024-05-30€700kVolos NFC
2024-09-26€600kPanetolikos
2024-12-18€700kPanetolikos
2025-05-23€700kPanetolikos
2025-12-12€700kPanetolikos
2026-06-04€700kPanetolikos

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.017

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 55% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Sielis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).