FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Eric García

Eric

García

CBSpain · FC Barcelona

№ 466794World Class €35.8M +0.11

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

EricGarcía

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
FC Barcelona
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
25
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values García at €40M. Model A, which never saw García during training, estimates €35.8M: the market value is 12% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €41.5M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.11A €35.8M▼ −0.04B €41.5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
96
Minutes
6,058
Goals
6
Assists
5
Started
66/96
Min / app
63
Cards
11Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for García…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €40MModel A €35.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Eric García's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 83rd, Assists per 90 69th, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 25th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 81st83rdGoals69thAssists93rdMinutes25thStarts98thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,954 this player1,687 defender median98th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,941

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€7M
Sept 2019
Peak
€40M
Jun 2026
Model target
€40M
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
3 club changes
Jun 2026€40MFC BarcelonaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €40M, FC Barcelona. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-09-25€7MManchester City
2020-04-08€6.3MManchester City
2020-07-30€16MManchester City
2020-10-13€20MManchester City
2021-03-18€20MManchester City
2021-05-31€20MManchester City
2021-12-30€18MFC Barcelona
2022-06-03€18MFC Barcelona
2022-11-07€18MFC Barcelona
2023-03-23€12MFC Barcelona
2023-06-13€10MFC Barcelona
2023-10-13€12MGirona FC
2023-12-22€15MGirona FC
2024-06-07€20MGirona FC
2024-12-27€18MFC Barcelona
2025-03-21€15MFC Barcelona
2025-06-09€18MFC Barcelona
2025-10-02€25MFC Barcelona
2025-12-12€30MFC Barcelona
2026-03-16€35MFC Barcelona
2026-06-05€40MFC Barcelona

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.112

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 93% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 97% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Where García appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).