FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Oliver

Villadsen

RBDenmark · Bröndby IF

№ 462838Emerging €2.1M −0.54

Player dossierSuperliga

OliverVilladsen

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Bröndby IF
League
Superliga
Nationality
Denmark
Age
24
Height
173 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
25 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Villadsen at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Villadsen during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 42% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.72. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.54A €2.1M▼ −0.03B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
34
Minutes
1,949
Goals
0
Assists
6
Started
20/34
Min / app
57
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Villadsen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Oliver Villadsen's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 99th, Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 14th, Minutes, last 365 days 44th, European club minutes 76th18thGoals99thAssists32ndMinutes14thStarts44thRecent76thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.28 this player0.04 defender median99th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2018
Peak
€3M
Jun 2024
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
19
3 club changes
May 2026€1.2MBröndby IFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Bröndby IF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-12-21€50kFC Nordsjaelland U19
2019-09-09€100kFC Nordsjaelland
2019-12-22€150kFC Nordsjaelland
2020-07-31€250kFC Nordsjaelland
2020-12-23€350kFC Nordsjaelland
2021-06-04€600kFC Nordsjaelland
2021-10-06€700kFC Nordsjaelland
2021-12-28€700kFC Nordsjaelland
2022-06-20€1.5MFC Nordsjaelland
2022-12-22€1.5MFC Nordsjaelland
2023-06-26€2.5MFC Nordsjaelland
2023-12-21€2.5MFC Nordsjaelland
2024-06-10€3MFC Nordsjaelland
2024-09-25€2M1.FC Nuremberg
2024-12-19€2M1.FC Nuremberg
2025-03-26€1.8M1.FC Nuremberg
2025-06-19€1.5M1.FC Nuremberg
2025-12-15€1.2MBröndby IF
2026-05-25€1.2MBröndby IF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.544

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Superliga256 players · median €800k

Valued above 61% of the 256 Superliga players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 39% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Villadsen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).