João
Silva
CBPortugal · CD Tondela
Player dossierLiga Portugal
JoãoSilva
CBCentre-BackDefender
- Club
- CD Tondela
- League
- Liga Portugal
- Nationality
- Portugal
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 189 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 28 May 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Silva at €1.5M. Model A, which never saw Silva during training, estimates €810k: the market value is 85% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.85. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.1M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 34
- Minutes
- 2,873
- Goals
- 2
- Assists
- 0
- Started
- 33/34
- Min / app
- 85
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Silva…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders
Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
97% this player83% defender median90th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €300k
- Jun 2021
- Peak
- €1.5M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €1.5M
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 13
- 3 club changes
May 2026: €1.5M, CD Tondela. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-06-10 | €300k | NK Istra 1961 |
| 2021-12-30 | €200k | NK Istra 1961 |
| 2022-03-22 | €150k | NK Istra 1961 |
| 2022-11-04 | €350k | KV Kortrijk |
| 2023-03-22 | €550k | KV Kortrijk |
| 2023-06-09 | €750k | KV Kortrijk |
| 2023-10-23 | €1.2M | KV Kortrijk |
| 2023-12-19 | €1.2M | KV Kortrijk |
| 2024-06-04 | €1.5M | KV Kortrijk |
| 2024-12-11 | €1.5M | KV Kortrijk |
| 2025-06-06 | €1.5M | Sport Club do Recife |
| 2025-12-10 | €1.5M | Sport Club do Recife |
| 2026-05-28 | €1.5M | CD Tondela |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.616
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M
Valued above 53% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.
See them in the Explorer →Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M
Valued above 43% of the 2,065 defenders.
See them in the Explorer →Where Silva appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- JordanCFCD Tondela · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- SchettineCFMoreirense FC · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- MoreiraCMCF Estrela Amadora · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- PanzoCBRio Ave FC · Liga Portugal€1.5M
- TraunerCBFeyenoord Rotterdam · defenders€1.5M
- KüblerRBSC Freiburg · defenders€1.5M
- WalkerRBBurnley FC · defenders€1.5M
- TrippierRBNewcastle United · defenders€1.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).