Estéban
Lepaul
CFFrance · Stade Rennais FC
Player dossierLigue 1
EstébanLepaul
CFCentre-ForwardAttack
- Club
- Stade Rennais FC
- League
- Ligue 1
- Nationality
- France
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 181 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 1 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Lepaul at €35M. Model A, which never saw Lepaul during training, estimates €27.7M: the market value is 26% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.26. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €16.5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 62
- Minutes
- 4,336
- Goals
- 30
- Assists
- 5
- Started
- 51/62
- Min / app
- 70
- Cards
- 5Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lepaul…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €35M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Goals per 90
Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.
0.62 this player0.26 attacker median96th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €150k
- Dec 2021
- Peak
- €35M
- Jun 2026
- Model target
- €35M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 14
- 3 club changes
Jun 2026: €35M, Stade Rennais FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-27 | €150k | US Orléans |
| 2022-06-21 | €400k | US Orléans |
| 2022-12-20 | €300k | US Orléans |
| 2023-06-14 | €250k | US Orléans |
| 2023-12-08 | €600k | SAS Epinal |
| 2024-03-26 | €700k | Angers SCO |
| 2024-06-11 | €800k | Angers SCO |
| 2024-12-10 | €700k | Angers SCO |
| 2025-03-24 | €5M | Angers SCO |
| 2025-06-03 | €7M | Angers SCO |
| 2025-10-10 | €12M | Stade Rennais FC |
| 2025-12-15 | €15M | Stade Rennais FC |
| 2026-03-27 | €20M | Stade Rennais FC |
| 2026-06-01 | €35M | Stade Rennais FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.233
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Ligue 1423 players · median €5M
Valued above 94% of the 423 Ligue 1 players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 94% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Lepaul appears
- TerminalLigue 1 in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLigue 1 on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- PaixãoLWOlympique Marseille · Ligue 1€35M
- Fernandez-PardoCFLOSC Lille · Ligue 1€35M
- NwaneriAMOlympique Marseille · Ligue 1€35M
- PanichelliCFRC Strasbourg Alsace · Ligue 1€35M
- DíazRWReal Madrid · attackers€35M
- VlahovićCFJuventus FC · attackers€35M
- SchadeLWBrentford FC · attackers€35M
- SummervilleLWWest Ham United · attackers€35M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).