FairValue

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Jan

Hurtado

CFVenezuela · Volos NFC

№ 459115Emerging €451k −0.12

Player dossierSuper League

JanHurtado

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Volos NFC
League
Super League
Nationality
Venezuela
Age
26
Height
183 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hurtado at €400k. Model A, which never saw Hurtado during training, estimates €451k: the market value is 11% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.13. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €464k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €451k▼ −0.15B €464k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
8
Minutes
501
Goals
2
Assists
0
Started
5/8
Min / app
63
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hurtado…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €451k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jan Hurtado's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 69th, Assists per 90 6th, Minutes, two years 2nd, Starts 56th, Minutes, last 365 days 15th, European club minutes 28th69thGoals6thAssists2ndMinutes56thStarts15thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.36 this player0.26 attacker median69th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Sept 2016
Peak
€7M
Aug 2019
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
23
10 club changes
Jun 2026€400kVolos NFCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, Volos NFC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-09-01€50kUnknown
2016-12-19€150kUnknown
2017-06-12€350kDeportivo Táchira
2017-10-10€350kWithout Club
2018-12-13€750kClub de Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
2019-08-06€7MCA Boca Juniors
2019-12-05€7MCA Boca Juniors
2020-04-08€6.3MCA Boca Juniors
2021-02-09€5MRed Bull Bragantino
2021-05-28€4.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2021-12-17€4.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2022-04-06€4.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2022-08-19€4.5MRed Bull Bragantino
2022-11-14€4MRed Bull Bragantino
2023-04-05€2MRed Bull Bragantino
2023-07-04€1.2MCA Boca Juniors
2023-12-05€900kLDU Quito
2024-04-17€600kLDU Quito
2024-06-06€400kLDU Quito
2024-12-09€400kAtlético Clube Goianiense
2025-06-02€400kClub de Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
2025-12-17€350kClub de Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
2026-06-04€400kVolos NFC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.120

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 29% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 11% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hurtado appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).