FairValue

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Dejan

Lovren

CBCroatia · PAOK Thessaloniki

№ 37838Emerging €307k +0.26

Player dossierSuper League

DejanLovren

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
PAOK Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Croatia
Age
36
Height
188 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Lovren at €400k. Model A, which never saw Lovren during training, estimates €307k: the market value is 30% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.30. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €179k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.26A €307k▲ +0.81B €179k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
26
Minutes
2,257
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
26/26
Min / app
87
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lovren…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €400kModel A €307k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Dejan Lovren's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 50th, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 97th, Minutes, last 365 days 44th, European club minutes 65th18thGoals50thAssists39thMinutes97thStarts44thRecent65thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player83% defender median97th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€800k
Feb 2006
Peak
€20M
Aug 2014
Model target
€400k
Jun 2026
Valuations
44
8 club changes
Jun 2026€400kPAOK ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €400k, PAOK Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2006-02-21€800kGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2006-10-06€600kNK Inter Zapresic
2007-10-09€900kNK Inter Zapresic
2008-04-13€1.1MNK Inter Zapresic
2008-09-15€1.3MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2009-02-08€1.6MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2009-10-05€2.5MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2010-01-14€7.5MOlympique Lyon
2010-05-18€7MOlympique Lyon
2011-05-24€7.3MOlympique Lyon
2011-12-24€8MOlympique Lyon
2012-05-23€8MOlympique Lyon
2013-01-07€8MOlympique Lyon
2013-05-30€7MOlympique Lyon
2013-09-18€10MSouthampton FC
2014-01-15€12MSouthampton FC
2014-08-12€20MLiverpool FC
2015-02-12€15MLiverpool FC
2015-07-01€13MLiverpool FC
2016-02-09€13MLiverpool FC
2016-08-01€15MLiverpool FC
2017-02-20€15MLiverpool FC
2017-06-28€17MLiverpool FC
2018-01-02€17MLiverpool FC
2018-05-28€20MLiverpool FC
2018-12-19€20MLiverpool FC
2019-06-13€20MLiverpool FC
2019-12-10€20MLiverpool FC
2020-04-08€16MLiverpool FC
2020-07-30€12MLiverpool FC
2020-12-29€11MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-05-28€10MZenit St. Petersburg
2021-12-29€7MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-06-02€4.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2022-11-14€3.5MZenit St. Petersburg
2023-03-27€3MOlympique Lyon
2023-06-27€2.5MOlympique Lyon
2023-12-18€2MOlympique Lyon
2024-06-03€1.2MOlympique Lyon
2024-09-26€1MPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-12-18€800kPAOK Thessaloniki
2025-05-23€600kPAOK Thessaloniki
2025-12-12€500kPAOK Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€400kPAOK Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.264

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 29% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 14% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€400kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Lovren appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).