FairValue

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Esequiel

Barco

AMArgentina · Spartak Moscow

№ 456623Elite €10.3M +0.45

Player dossierPremier Liga

EsequielBarco

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Spartak Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Argentina
Age
27
Height
166 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Barco at €16M. Model A, which never saw Barco during training, estimates €10.3M: the market value is 56% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.56. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €13.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.45A €10.3M▲ +0.14B €13.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
70
Minutes
5,776
Goals
21
Assists
16
Started
65/70
Min / app
83
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Barco…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €16M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €16MModel A €10.3M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Esequiel Barco's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 95th, Assists per 90 92nd, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 90th, Minutes, last 365 days 90th, European club minutes 30th95thGoals92ndAssists93rdMinutes90thStarts90thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.33 this player0.08 midfielder median95th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€250k
Sept 2016
Peak
€16M
May 2026
Model target
€16M
May 2026
Valuations
25
3 club changes
May 2026€16MSpartak MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €16M, Spartak Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-09-24€250kCA Independiente
2017-02-13€2.5MCA Independiente
2017-10-09€6.5MCA Independiente
2018-03-14€8MAtlanta United FC
2018-05-02€8MAtlanta United FC
2018-12-15€8MAtlanta United FC
2019-05-27€8MAtlanta United FC
2019-11-30€10MAtlanta United FC
2020-04-08€9MAtlanta United FC
2020-08-26€10.5MAtlanta United FC
2020-12-18€10MAtlanta United FC
2021-07-09€10MAtlanta United FC
2021-11-09€10MAtlanta United FC
2022-05-24€10MCA River Plate
2022-09-06€8MCA River Plate
2022-10-26€7MCA River Plate
2023-04-05€6MCA River Plate
2023-07-04€8.5MCA River Plate
2023-12-19€9MCA River Plate
2024-06-12€9MCA River Plate
2024-09-18€12MSpartak Moscow
2024-12-12€14MSpartak Moscow
2025-06-04€14MSpartak Moscow
2025-12-16€14MSpartak Moscow
2026-05-26€16MSpartak Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.445

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Joint 7th highest observed value among 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 86% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€16MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Barco appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).