Ellery
Balcombe
GKEngland · Brentford FC
Player dossierPremier League
ElleryBalcombe
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Brentford FC
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 26
- Height
- 190 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Reading the valuation
The market values Balcombe at €400k. Model A, which never saw Balcombe during training, estimates €2.5M: the market value is 84% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×6.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 35
- Minutes
- 3,150
- Started
- 35/35
- Min / app
- 90
- Cards
- 3Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Balcombe…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €400k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
11% this player0% goalkeeper median75th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €50k
- Jun 2019
- Peak
- €400k
- Oct 2024
- Model target
- €400k
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 15
- 7 club changes
Jun 2026: €400k, Brentford FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-28 | €50k | Brentford FC |
| 2019-12-22 | €200k | Viborg FF |
| 2020-02-27 | €200k | Brentford FC |
| 2020-10-15 | €300k | Brentford FC |
| 2021-06-30 | €300k | Brentford FC |
| 2022-06-15 | €300k | Brentford FC |
| 2023-04-05 | €300k | Bristol Rovers |
| 2023-06-20 | €300k | Brentford FC |
| 2023-12-19 | €300k | Brentford FC |
| 2024-05-27 | €300k | Brentford FC |
| 2024-10-02 | €400k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2024-12-03 | €400k | St. Mirren FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €400k | Motherwell FC |
| 2025-12-09 | €400k | Brentford FC |
| 2026-06-03 | €400k | Brentford FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.818
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 2% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 21% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Balcombe appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- YoungRBIpswich Town · Premier League€400k
- ForsterGKAFC Bournemouth · Premier League€400k
- MurrayLMWigan Athletic · Premier League€400k
- WalesCFSwansea City · Premier League€400k
- GuaitaGKParma Calcio 1913 · goalkeepers€400k
- ChoutesiotisGKAtromitos Athens · goalkeepers€400k
- CarlgrenGKFC Nantes · goalkeepers€400k
- AkkanGKGenclerbirligi Ankara · goalkeepers€400k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).