Jordan
Smith
GKEngland · Hibernian FC
Player dossierPremiership
JordanSmith
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Hibernian FC
- League
- Premiership
- Nationality
- England
- Age
- 31
- Height
- 183 cm
- Foot
- Left
- Valued
- 20 May 2026
PremiershipReading the valuation
The market values Smith at €50k. Model A, which never saw Smith during training, estimates €235k: the market value is 79% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×4.71. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 33
- Minutes
- 3,060
- Started
- 33/33
- Min / app
- 93
- Cards
- 2Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Smith…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €50k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
21% this player0% goalkeeper median84th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €100k
- Apr 2017
- Peak
- €300k
- Jun 2021
- Model target
- €50k
- May 2026
- Valuations
- 19
- 2 club changes
May 2026: €50k, Hibernian FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-04 | €100k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2017-09-18 | €250k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2018-02-27 | €250k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2018-09-24 | €250k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2019-06-28 | €150k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2020-02-27 | €150k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2020-10-15 | €200k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2021-03-10 | €200k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2021-06-30 | €300k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2021-11-24 | €300k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2022-05-13 | €300k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2022-11-03 | €300k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2023-06-01 | €250k | Nottingham Forest |
| 2023-12-29 | €150k | Stockport County |
| 2024-06-27 | €125k | Stockport County |
| 2024-12-03 | €125k | Hibernian FC |
| 2025-06-17 | €100k | Hibernian FC |
| 2025-12-10 | €100k | Hibernian FC |
| 2026-05-20 | €50k | Hibernian FC |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −1.549
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premiership311 players · median €400k
Valued above 2% of the 311 Premiership players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 0% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Smith appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- GordonGKHeart of Midlothian FC · Premiership€50k
- HoilettLWHibernian FC · Premiership€50k
- HallidayDMMotherwell FC · Premiership€50k
- DouglasLBSt. Johnstone FC · Premiership€50k
- HansenGKAarhus GF · goalkeepers€50k
- LösslGKFC Midtjylland · goalkeepers€50k
- DeğirmenciGKKocaelispor · goalkeepers€50k
- BelenovGKFC Ufa · goalkeepers€50k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).