FairValue

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Portrait of Josha Vagnoman

Josha

Vagnoman

RBGermany · VfB Stuttgart

№ 448258Elite €16M −0.47

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierBundesliga

JoshaVagnoman

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
VfB Stuttgart
League
Bundesliga
Nationality
Germany
Age
25
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
27 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vagnoman at €10M. Model A, which never saw Vagnoman during training, estimates €16M: the market value is 37% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.60. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.47A €16M▼ −0.15B €11.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
75
Minutes
4,530
Goals
4
Assists
7
Started
50/75
Min / app
60
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vagnoman…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €16M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Josha Vagnoman's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 86th, Minutes, two years 77th, Starts 23rd, Minutes, last 365 days 64th, European club minutes 81st80thGoals86thAssists77thMinutes23rdStarts64thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.14 this player0.04 defender median86th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.58

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Apr 2018
Peak
€12M
Dec 2024
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
23
2 club changes
May 2026€10MVfB StuttgartValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, VfB Stuttgart. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-04-04€200kHamburger SV U19
2018-10-16€400kHamburger SV
2019-01-08€400kHamburger SV
2019-03-13€750kHamburger SV
2019-06-12€1.5MHamburger SV
2019-12-13€3MHamburger SV
2020-04-08€2.7MHamburger SV
2020-09-10€4MHamburger SV
2021-02-08€4MHamburger SV
2021-06-16€4MHamburger SV
2021-12-15€3MHamburger SV
2022-06-16€3MHamburger SV
2022-09-21€3.7MVfB Stuttgart
2022-11-09€3.7MVfB Stuttgart
2023-03-29€5MVfB Stuttgart
2023-06-22€8MVfB Stuttgart
2023-12-14€8MVfB Stuttgart
2024-03-27€10MVfB Stuttgart
2024-05-29€10MVfB Stuttgart
2024-12-20€12MVfB Stuttgart
2025-06-05€10MVfB Stuttgart
2025-12-19€10MVfB Stuttgart
2026-05-27€10MVfB Stuttgart

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.470

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Bundesliga451 players · median €5M

Valued above 65% of the 451 Bundesliga players.

€300k€2M€15M€100M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vagnoman appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).