FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Maksim

Vityugov

DMRussia · Krylya Sovetov Samara

№ 447101Emerging €779k +0.25

Player dossierPremier Liga

MaksimVityugov

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Krylya Sovetov Samara
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
28
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vityugov at €1M. Model A, which never saw Vityugov during training, estimates €779k: the market value is 28% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €856k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.25A €779k▲ +0.16B €856k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
38
Minutes
2,107
Goals
3
Assists
3
Started
22/38
Min / app
55
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vityugov…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €779k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Maksim Vityugov's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 65th, Assists per 90 63rd, Minutes, two years 39th, Starts 32nd, Minutes, last 365 days 40th, European club minutes 30th65thGoals63rdAssists39thMinutes32ndStarts40thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.13 this player0.08 midfielder median65th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2016
Peak
€1M
Jun 2023
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
22
1 club change
May 2026€1MKrylya Sovetov SamaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, Krylya Sovetov Samara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-12-02€50kChertanovo Moscow
2017-06-01€50kChertanovo Moscow
2017-11-22€100kChertanovo Moscow
2018-06-06€150kChertanovo Moscow
2018-10-15€250kChertanovo Moscow
2018-12-20€450kChertanovo Moscow
2019-06-14€600kChertanovo Moscow
2019-12-23€700kChertanovo Moscow
2020-04-08€625kChertanovo Moscow
2020-06-29€750kChertanovo Moscow
2020-12-29€800kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2021-05-24€800kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2021-12-06€800kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2022-06-02€700kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2022-11-21€800kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2023-06-14€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2023-12-13€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2024-06-04€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2024-12-12€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara
2025-06-04€900kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2025-12-16€800kKrylya Sovetov Samara
2026-05-26€1MKrylya Sovetov Samara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.250

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 44% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vityugov appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).