FairValue

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Emanuele

Valeri

LBItaly · Parma Calcio 1913

№ 445126Established €6.1M −0.70

Player dossierSerie A

EmanueleValeri

LBLeft-BackDefender

Club
Parma Calcio 1913
League
Serie A
Nationality
Italy
Age
27
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Valeri at €3M. Model A, which never saw Valeri during training, estimates €6.1M: the market value is 50% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.02. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.4M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.70A €6.1M▼ −0.59B €5.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
71
Minutes
5,682
Goals
2
Assists
10
Started
65/71
Min / app
80
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Valeri…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3MModel A €6.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Emanuele Valeri's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 50th, Assists per 90 90th, Minutes, two years 90th, Starts 74th, Minutes, last 365 days 83rd, European club minutes 30th50thGoals90thAssists90thMinutes74thStarts83rdRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,682 this player2,860 defender median90th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2016
Peak
€3.5M
Mar 2023
Model target
€3M
May 2026
Valuations
23
6 club changes
May 2026€3MParma Calcio 1913Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €3M, Parma Calcio 1913. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-11-30€50kFC Rieti
2017-06-30€125kFC Rieti
2017-12-20€125kUS Lecce
2018-06-21€125kUS Lecce
2018-11-02€150kRC Cesena
2019-02-05€150kRC Cesena
2019-06-26€200kRC Cesena
2019-12-18€200kCesena FC
2020-06-17€250kCesena FC
2021-02-22€600kUS Cremonese
2021-06-24€900kUS Cremonese
2021-12-29€1.3MUS Cremonese
2022-06-06€1.8MUS Cremonese
2022-11-11€2.2MUS Cremonese
2023-03-21€3.5MUS Cremonese
2023-06-15€3.5MUS Cremonese
2023-10-11€2.7MUS Cremonese
2023-12-27€2.3MUS Cremonese
2024-06-05€2.3MFrosinone Calcio
2024-12-18€3MParma Calcio 1913
2025-06-17€3MParma Calcio 1913
2025-12-23€3MParma Calcio 1913
2026-05-29€3MParma Calcio 1913

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.701

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 29% of the 507 Serie A players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 59% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Valeri appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).