FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Dal

Varesanovic

AMBosnia-Herzegovina · Genclerbirligi Ankara

№ 433105Emerging €558k +0.77

Player dossierSüper Lig

DalVaresanovic

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Genclerbirligi Ankara
League
Süper Lig
Nationality
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Age
24
Height
177 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
21 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Varesanovic at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Varesanovic during training, estimates €558k: the market value is 115% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.15. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €839k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.77A €558k▲ +0.36B €839k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
46
Minutes
2,360
Goals
4
Assists
3
Started
29/46
Min / app
51
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Varesanovic…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €558k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dal Varesanovic's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 73rd, Assists per 90 58th, Minutes, two years 45th, Starts 39th, Minutes, last 365 days 12th, European club minutes 30th73rdGoals58thAssists45thMinutes39thStarts12thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.15 this player0.08 midfielder median73rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2020
Peak
€2.6M
Oct 2024
Model target
€1.2M
May 2026
Valuations
18
2 club changes
May 2026€1.2MGenclerbirligi AnkaraValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1.2M, Genclerbirligi Ankara. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-11-03€50kFK Sarajevo
2021-06-15€100kFK Sarajevo
2021-12-08€150kFK Sarajevo
2022-06-16€300kFK Sarajevo
2022-11-28€450kFK Sarajevo
2023-06-02€1MFK Sarajevo
2023-09-27€1.5MCaykur Rizespor
2023-12-21€2.2MCaykur Rizespor
2024-03-15€2.4MCaykur Rizespor
2024-05-31€2.4MCaykur Rizespor
2024-10-04€2.6MCaykur Rizespor
2024-12-23€2.6MCaykur Rizespor
2025-03-20€2.5MCaykur Rizespor
2025-06-18€2.4MCaykur Rizespor
2025-10-01€2.5MGenclerbirligi Ankara
2025-12-17€2MGenclerbirligi Ankara
2026-03-05€1.5MGenclerbirligi Ankara
2026-05-21€1.2MGenclerbirligi Ankara

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.765

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Süper Lig428 players · median €1.2M

Valued above 45% of the 428 Süper Lig players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 35% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Varesanovic appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).