FairValue

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Portrait of Jørgen Strand Larsen

Jørgen Strand

Larsen

CFNorway · Crystal Palace

№ 429983World Class €17M +0.85

Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits, CC BY-SA 4.0 (background removed)

Player dossierPremier League

Jørgen StrandLarsen

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Crystal Palace
League
Premier League
Nationality
Norway
Age
26
Height
193 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Larsen at €40M. Model A, which never saw Larsen during training, estimates €17M: the market value is 135% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.35. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €11.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.85A €17M▲ +1.26B €11.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
77
Minutes
5,309
Goals
23
Assists
6
Started
60/77
Min / app
69
Cards
9Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Larsen…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €40M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €40MModel A €17M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Jørgen Strand Larsen's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 75th, Assists per 90 32nd, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 81st, Minutes, last 365 days 86th, European club minutes 28th75thGoals32ndAssists93rdMinutes81stStarts86thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,309 this player2,242 attacker median93rd percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●8,788

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Dec 2016
Peak
€45M
Mar 2026
Model target
€40M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
4 club changes
Jun 2026€40MCrystal PalaceValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €40M, Crystal Palace. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-12-18€50kSarpsborg 08 FF
2018-06-30€75kSarpsborg 08 FF
2018-09-10€100kSarpsborg 08 FF
2018-12-30€100kSarpsborg 08 FF
2019-12-29€300kSarpsborg 08 FF
2020-10-14€600kFC Groningen
2021-01-06€1.5MFC Groningen
2021-03-09€3.2MFC Groningen
2021-05-19€3.5MFC Groningen
2021-10-04€3MFC Groningen
2022-01-05€3MFC Groningen
2022-03-17€4MFC Groningen
2022-06-08€6MFC Groningen
2022-09-23€11MCelta de Vigo
2022-11-07€11MCelta de Vigo
2023-06-13€11MCelta de Vigo
2023-10-13€12MCelta de Vigo
2023-12-22€15MCelta de Vigo
2024-03-21€20MCelta de Vigo
2024-06-07€25MCelta de Vigo
2024-12-16€27MWolverhampton Wanderers
2025-05-30€30MWolverhampton Wanderers
2025-10-17€40MWolverhampton Wanderers
2025-12-09€40MWolverhampton Wanderers
2026-03-09€45MCrystal Palace
2026-06-03€40MCrystal Palace

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.853

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 83% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 95% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€40MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Larsen appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).