FairValue

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Portrait of Aaron Ramsdale

Aaron

Ramsdale

GKEngland · Newcastle United

№ 427568Elite €14.9M −0.22

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

AaronRamsdale

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Newcastle United
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
28
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ramsdale at €12M. Model A, which never saw Ramsdale during training, estimates €14.9M: the market value is 20% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.24. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.6M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.22A €14.9M▲ +1.53B €2.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
4,813
Started
53/54
Min / app
89
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ramsdale…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €12MModel A €14.9M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Aaron Ramsdale's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 75th, Starts 20th, Minutes, last 365 days 59th, European club minutes 70th75thMinutes20thStarts59thRecent70thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

4,813 this player2,790 goalkeeper median75th percentile

450peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,210

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2016
Peak
€40M
Jun 2023
Model target
€12M
Jun 2026
Valuations
30
5 club changes
Jun 2026€12MNewcastle UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €12M, Newcastle United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-10-11€50kSheffield United
2017-02-20€500kAFC Bournemouth
2017-06-28€500kAFC Bournemouth
2018-01-02€500kAFC Bournemouth
2018-12-19€500kAFC Bournemouth
2019-06-13€750kAFC Bournemouth
2019-09-12€6MAFC Bournemouth
2019-12-10€10MAFC Bournemouth
2020-03-09€14MAFC Bournemouth
2020-04-08€12.5MAFC Bournemouth
2020-10-13€16MSheffield United
2021-03-18€12MSheffield United
2021-05-28€12MSheffield United
2021-10-05€20MArsenal FC
2021-12-23€25MArsenal FC
2022-06-15€28MArsenal FC
2022-11-03€30MArsenal FC
2023-03-16€38MArsenal FC
2023-06-20€40MArsenal FC
2023-10-09€32MArsenal FC
2023-12-19€28MArsenal FC
2024-03-14€25MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€25MArsenal FC
2024-10-01€22MSouthampton FC
2024-12-16€20MSouthampton FC
2025-03-18€16MSouthampton FC
2025-05-30€16MSouthampton FC
2025-10-17€14MNewcastle United
2025-12-09€12MNewcastle United
2026-06-03€12MNewcastle United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.217

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 36% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 90% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€12MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ramsdale appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).