Andriy
Lunin
GKUkraine · Real Madrid
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierLaLiga
AndriyLunin
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Real Madrid
- League
- LaLiga
- Nationality
- Ukraine
- Age
- 27
- Height
- 191 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 5 Jun 2026
LaLigaReading the valuation
The market values Lunin at €12M. Model A, which never saw Lunin during training, estimates €4.5M: the market value is 166% above that estimate.
That is a factor of ×2.66. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.7M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 26
- Minutes
- 2,355
- Started
- 25/26
- Min / app
- 91
- Cards
- 0Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Lunin…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €12M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
European club minutes
Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.
21% this player0% goalkeeper median86th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €300k
- Jan 2017
- Peak
- €25M
- Jun 2024
- Model target
- €12M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 25
- 6 club changes
Jun 2026: €12M, Real Madrid. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-03 | €300k | Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (- 2020) |
| 2017-06-26 | €700k | Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk (- 2020) |
| 2018-01-12 | €2M | Zorya Lugansk |
| 2018-05-14 | €3.5M | Zorya Lugansk |
| 2018-07-12 | €8.5M | Real Madrid |
| 2018-10-31 | €5M | CD Leganés |
| 2018-12-21 | €5M | CD Leganés |
| 2019-06-11 | €7.5M | CD Leganés |
| 2019-12-20 | €3M | Real Valladolid CF |
| 2020-04-08 | €2.7M | Real Oviedo |
| 2020-10-08 | €3M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-01-05 | €3M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-05-27 | €3M | Real Madrid |
| 2021-12-30 | €2M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-06-03 | €2.5M | Real Madrid |
| 2022-11-07 | €4M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-03-23 | €5M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-06-13 | €5M | Real Madrid |
| 2023-12-22 | €8M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-03-21 | €16M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-06-07 | €25M | Real Madrid |
| 2024-12-27 | €20M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-06-09 | €18M | Real Madrid |
| 2025-12-12 | €15M | Real Madrid |
| 2026-06-05 | €12M | Real Madrid |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- +0.979
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 90% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Lunin appears
- TerminalLaLiga in the Player Explorer
- TerminalLaLiga on the League Landscape
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- VargasLWSevilla FC · LaLiga€12M
- FrutosRWRayo Vallecano · LaLiga€12M
- CarreiraRBCelta de Vigo · LaLiga€12M
- DuroCFValencia CF · LaLiga€12M
- MartínezGKAston Villa · goalkeepers€12M
- NübelGKVfB Stuttgart · goalkeepers€12M
- DahmenGKFC Augsburg · goalkeepers€12M
- GrabaraGKVfL Wolfsburg · goalkeepers€12M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).