FairValue

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Portrait of George Hirst

George

Hirst

CFScotland · Ipswich Town

№ 420808Elite €4.2M +0.87

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

GeorgeHirst

CFCentre-ForwardAttack

Club
Ipswich Town
League
Premier League
Nationality
Scotland
Age
27
Height
191 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hirst at €10M. Model A, which never saw Hirst during training, estimates €4.2M: the market value is 138% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.38. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.87A €4.2M▲ +1.95B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
942
Goals
5
Assists
2
Started
8/31
Min / app
30
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hirst…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €4.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

George Hirst's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 85th, Assists per 90 67th, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 7th, Minutes, last 365 days 3rd, European club minutes 28th85thGoals67thAssists17thMinutes7thStarts3rdRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.48 this player0.26 attacker median85th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●1.17

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€400k
Sept 2018
Peak
€10M
May 2026
Model target
€10M
May 2026
Valuations
18
6 club changes
May 2026€10MIpswich TownValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €10M, Ipswich Town. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-09-14€400kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2019-01-18€500kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2019-06-10€500kOud-Heverlee Leuven
2020-04-08€450kLeicester City
2020-10-15€800kRotherham United
2021-03-10€800kRotherham United
2022-09-14€800kBlackburn Rovers
2022-10-27€800kBlackburn Rovers
2023-04-05€800kIpswich Town
2023-06-20€800kLeicester City
2023-10-27€1.8MIpswich Town
2023-12-21€3.2MIpswich Town
2024-05-24€4MIpswich Town
2024-12-16€5MIpswich Town
2025-05-30€4MIpswich Town
2025-10-06€6MIpswich Town
2025-12-03€8MIpswich Town
2026-05-28€10MIpswich Town

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.868

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 77% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hirst appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).