FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Portrait of Jurriën Timber

Jurriën

Timber

RBNetherlands · Arsenal FC

№ 420243World Class €46.1M +0.42

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

JurriënTimber

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
Arsenal FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Netherlands
Age
24
Height
179 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Timber at €70M. Model A, which never saw Timber during training, estimates €46.1M: the market value is 52% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.52. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €15M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.42A €46.1M▲ +1.54B €15M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
87
Minutes
6,686
Goals
6
Assists
11
Started
75/87
Min / app
77
Cards
15Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Timber…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €70M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €70MModel A €46.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Jurriën Timber's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 88th, Minutes, two years 97th, Starts 59th, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 85th80thGoals88thAssists97thMinutes59thStarts94thRecent85thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

6,686 this player2,860 defender median97th percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,111

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jan 2019
Peak
€70M
Dec 2025
Model target
€70M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
2 club changes
Jun 2026€70MArsenal FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €70M, Arsenal FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-21€50kAjax Amsterdam U21
2019-07-03€300kAjax Amsterdam U21
2020-01-17€900kAjax Amsterdam U21
2020-04-08€800kAjax Amsterdam U21
2020-06-29€2MAjax Amsterdam U21
2020-10-14€4MAjax Amsterdam
2020-12-31€4MAjax Amsterdam
2021-03-09€9MAjax Amsterdam
2021-05-27€11MAjax Amsterdam
2021-10-04€17MAjax Amsterdam
2022-01-05€30MAjax Amsterdam
2022-06-08€35MAjax Amsterdam
2022-09-14€45MAjax Amsterdam
2022-11-11€45MAjax Amsterdam
2023-03-17€42MAjax Amsterdam
2023-06-23€42MAjax Amsterdam
2023-12-19€40MArsenal FC
2024-05-27€38MArsenal FC
2024-12-16€45MArsenal FC
2025-03-18€50MArsenal FC
2025-05-30€55MArsenal FC
2025-10-17€60MArsenal FC
2025-12-09€70MArsenal FC
2026-06-03€70MArsenal FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.418

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 94% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€70MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Joint 7th highest observed value among 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€70MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Timber appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).