FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Ruslan

Neshcheret

GKUkraine · Dynamo Kyiv

№ 417242Established €3.5M +0.01

Player dossierPremier Liha

RuslanNeshcheret

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Dynamo Kyiv
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
24
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
2 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Neshcheret at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Neshcheret during training, estimates €3.5M: the market value is 1% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.01. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.1M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.01A €3.5M▼ −0.84B €8.1M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
54
Minutes
4,911
Started
54/54
Min / app
91
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Neshcheret…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €3.5MModel A €3.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Ruslan Neshcheret's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 76th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 85th, European club minutes 81st76thMinutes62ndStarts85thRecent81stEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,231 this player1,560 goalkeeper median85th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,970

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€200k
Sept 2020
Peak
€4M
Jun 2025
Model target
€3.5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
0 club changes
Jun 2026€3.5MDynamo KyivValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €3.5M, Dynamo Kyiv. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2020-09-04€200kDynamo Kyiv
2020-11-10€400kDynamo Kyiv
2021-01-14€1MDynamo Kyiv
2021-06-07€1MDynamo Kyiv
2021-12-20€1MDynamo Kyiv
2022-05-18€1MDynamo Kyiv
2022-12-06€1.5MDynamo Kyiv
2023-03-28€2MDynamo Kyiv
2023-06-21€3MDynamo Kyiv
2023-12-11€2MDynamo Kyiv
2024-06-06€2MDynamo Kyiv
2024-12-17€1.5MDynamo Kyiv
2025-03-21€3MDynamo Kyiv
2025-06-10€4MDynamo Kyiv
2025-12-18€3.5MDynamo Kyiv
2026-06-02€3.5MDynamo Kyiv

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.012

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 93% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 72% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€3.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Neshcheret appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).