Matz
Sels
GKBelgium · Nottingham Forest
Image: FootyLogos
Player dossierPremier League
MatzSels
GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper
- Club
- Nottingham Forest
- League
- Premier League
- Nationality
- Belgium
- Age
- 34
- Height
- 188 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 3 Jun 2026
Premier LeagueReading the valuation
The market values Sels at €3.5M. Model A, which never saw Sels during training, estimates €7M: the market value is 50% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.99. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €6.3M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 80
- Minutes
- 7,138
- Started
- 78/80
- Min / app
- 89
- Cards
- 6Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Sels…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €3.5M
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers
Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)
Minutes, two years
Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.
7,138 this player2,790 goalkeeper median94th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Feb 2010
- Peak
- €8M
- Dec 2019
- Model target
- €3.5M
- Jun 2026
- Valuations
- 37
- 6 club changes
Jun 2026: €3.5M, Nottingham Forest. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2010-02-09 | €25k | Lierse SK U19 |
| 2010-05-27 | €50k | Lierse SK U19 |
| 2011-01-10 | €50k | Lierse SK (-2018) |
| 2011-06-30 | €100k | Lierse SK (-2018) |
| 2012-09-18 | €500k | Lierse SK (-2018) |
| 2013-01-08 | €800k | Lierse SK (-2018) |
| 2013-06-30 | €900k | Lierse SK (-2018) |
| 2014-02-10 | €1.2M | KAA Gent |
| 2014-06-28 | €1.5M | KAA Gent |
| 2015-01-07 | €2M | KAA Gent |
| 2015-03-24 | €2.5M | KAA Gent |
| 2015-06-24 | €3M | KAA Gent |
| 2015-10-22 | €5M | KAA Gent |
| 2016-02-07 | €6.5M | KAA Gent |
| 2016-09-01 | €6.5M | Newcastle United |
| 2017-02-27 | €6M | Newcastle United |
| 2017-06-28 | €5M | Newcastle United |
| 2018-01-09 | €4M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2018-06-03 | €4.5M | RSC Anderlecht |
| 2018-12-17 | €4.5M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2019-03-07 | €6.5M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2019-06-03 | €7M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2019-12-19 | €8M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2020-04-08 | €6.5M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2020-10-15 | €6.5M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2021-05-26 | €6.5M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2021-12-16 | €6.5M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2022-05-30 | €8M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2022-11-02 | €8M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2023-06-27 | €7M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2023-12-18 | €7M | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 2024-05-27 | €7M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2024-12-16 | €7M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2025-05-30 | €7M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2025-12-09 | €6M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-03-09 | €4M | Nottingham Forest |
| 2026-06-03 | €3.5M | Nottingham Forest |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.687
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Premier League555 players · median €18M
Valued above 15% of the 555 Premier League players.
See them in the Explorer →Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M
Valued above 72% of the 485 goalkeepers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Sels appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- IngsCFSheffield United · Premier League€3.5M
- DunkCBBrighton & Hove Albion · Premier League€3.5M
- SáGKWolverhampton Wanderers · Premier League€3.5M
- MadsenCMQueens Park Rangers · Premier League€3.5M
- GeaGKACF Fiorentina · goalkeepers€3.5M
- FalconeGKUS Lecce · goalkeepers€3.5M
- KöhnGKAS Monaco · goalkeepers€3.5M
- MitryushkinGKLokomotiv Moscow · goalkeepers€3.5M
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).