Nigel
Thomas
LWCuracao · ADO Den Haag
Player dossierEredivisie
NigelThomas
LWLeft WingerAttack
- Club
- ADO Den Haag
- League
- Eredivisie
- Nationality
- Curacao
- Age
- 24
- Height
- 177 cm
- Foot
- Right
- Valued
- 16 Dec 2025
EredivisieReading the valuation
The market values Thomas at €300k. Model A, which never saw Thomas during training, estimates €507k: the market value is 41% below that estimate.
That is a factor of ×1.69. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.
Without league and club, Model B estimates €633k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.
A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.
- Apps
- 13
- Minutes
- 715
- Goals
- 1
- Assists
- 1
- Started
- 10/13
- Min / app
- 55
- Cards
- 4Y 0R
Club matches, two years to the valuation date
The Valuation Journey
What moves Model A
Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Thomas…
SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.
Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k
Checking APIAsking the prediction API…
Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).
Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers
Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)
Starts
Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.
77% this player59% attacker median79th percentile
No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.
Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record
- First valuation
- €25k
- Aug 2020
- Peak
- €700k
- Mar 2023
- Model target
- €300k
- Dec 2025
- Valuations
- 14
- 5 club changes
Dec 2025: €300k, ADO Den Haag. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.
Show as a table
| Date | Market value | Club |
|---|---|---|
| 2020-08-12 | €25k | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2020-10-15 | €100k | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2020-12-31 | €150k | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2021-03-16 | €250k | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2022-01-12 | €300k | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2022-06-23 | €300k | PSV Eindhoven U21 |
| 2022-11-01 | €500k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2023-03-02 | €700k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2023-06-16 | €700k | FC Paços de Ferreira |
| 2023-12-21 | €700k | Viborg FF |
| 2024-06-10 | €700k | Viborg FF |
| 2024-12-19 | €600k | CD Nacional |
| 2025-06-23 | €300k | Académico Viseu FC |
| 2025-12-16 | €300k | ADO Den Haag |
Audit context group-level, not about this player
- Audit group
- non-UEFA
- Population gap, Model A
- +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
- This player, market vs held-out A
- −0.525
The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit
In context observed value among comparable players in this build
All players in the Terminal →Eredivisie425 players · median €1M
Valued above 8% of the 425 Eredivisie players.
See them in the Explorer →Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M
Valued above 8% of the 1,583 attackers.
See them in the Explorer →Where Thomas appears
Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.
Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position
- HoltbyCMNAC Breda · Eredivisie€300k
- LinssenCFNEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie€300k
- NauberCBGo Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie€300k
- ViergeverCBFC Utrecht · Eredivisie€300k
- TosunCFKasimpasa · attackers€300k
- ZabolotnyiCFSpartak Moscow · attackers€300k
- ForrestRWCeltic FC · attackers€300k
- EngelsLWHeracles Almelo · attackers€300k
Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).