FairValue

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Portrait of Phil Foden

Phil

Foden

AMEngland · Manchester City

№ 406635World Class €66.4M +0.05

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

PhilFoden

AMAttacking MidfieldMidfield

Club
Manchester City
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
26
Height
171 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Foden at €70M. Model A, which never saw Foden during training, estimates €66.4M: the market value is 5% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.05. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €62.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.05A €66.4M▲ +0.12B €62.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
97
Minutes
5,893
Goals
23
Assists
14
Started
63/97
Min / app
61
Cards
7Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Foden…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €70M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €70MModel A €66.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Phil Foden's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 96th, Assists per 90 86th, Minutes, two years 94th, Starts 42nd, Minutes, last 365 days 94th, European club minutes 89th96thGoals86thAssists94thMinutes42ndStarts94thRecent89thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.35 this player0.08 midfielder median96th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.93

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€5M
Jan 2018
Peak
€150M
May 2024
Model target
€70M
Jun 2026
Valuations
27
0 club changes
Jun 2026€70MManchester CityValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €70M, Manchester City. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-01-02€5MManchester City
2018-05-28€7MManchester City
2018-10-17€15MManchester City
2018-12-19€20MManchester City
2019-03-05€25MManchester City
2019-06-13€25MManchester City
2019-09-12€30MManchester City
2019-12-10€30MManchester City
2020-04-08€27MManchester City
2020-07-30€40MManchester City
2020-10-13€60MManchester City
2021-03-18€70MManchester City
2021-05-28€80MManchester City
2021-12-23€85MManchester City
2022-03-29€90MManchester City
2022-06-15€90MManchester City
2022-11-03€110MManchester City
2023-06-20€110MManchester City
2023-12-19€110MManchester City
2024-03-14€130MManchester City
2024-05-27€150MManchester City
2024-12-16€140MManchester City
2025-03-18€130MManchester City
2025-05-30€100MManchester City
2025-10-17€80MManchester City
2025-12-09€80MManchester City
2026-06-03€70MManchester City

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.053

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 94% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€70MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 98% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€70MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Foden appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).