FairValue

Checking model

Esc

  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Alec Van

Hoorenbeeck

CBBelgium · Heracles Almelo

№ 405892Emerging €852k −0.20

Player dossierEredivisie

Alec VanHoorenbeeck

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Heracles Almelo
League
Eredivisie
Nationality
Belgium
Age
27
Height
187 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Hoorenbeeck at €700k. Model A, which never saw Hoorenbeeck during training, estimates €852k: the market value is 18% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.22. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.20A €852k▼ −1.97B €5M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
56
Minutes
4,143
Goals
6
Assists
0
Started
44/56
Min / app
74
Cards
8Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Hoorenbeeck…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €700k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €700kModel A €852k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Alec Van Hoorenbeeck's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 93rd, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 72nd, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 75th, European club minutes 71st93rdGoals17thAssists72ndMinutes41stStarts75thRecent71stEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.13 this player0.03 defender median93rd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Jun 2019
Peak
€1M
Dec 2023
Model target
€700k
May 2026
Valuations
16
4 club changes
May 2026€700kHeracles AlmeloValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €700k, Heracles Almelo. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-06-10€50kKV Mechelen
2019-12-13€50kKV Mechelen
2020-10-24€50kHelmond Sport
2020-12-31€200kHelmond Sport
2021-10-06€200kKV Mechelen
2022-01-06€350kKV Mechelen
2022-04-12€500kKV Mechelen
2022-05-26€700kKV Mechelen
2022-11-04€750kKV Mechelen
2023-06-09€900kKV Mechelen
2023-12-15€1MFC Twente Enschede
2024-05-31€900kFC Twente Enschede
2024-12-17€800kFC Twente Enschede
2025-05-28€800kFC Twente Enschede
2025-12-02€800kHeracles Almelo
2026-05-28€700kHeracles Almelo

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.197

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Eredivisie425 players · median €1M

Valued above 34% of the 425 Eredivisie players.

€75k€500k€3M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 26% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€700kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Hoorenbeeck appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).