FairValue

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Daniil

Fomin

DMRussia · Dynamo Moscow

№ 400713Established €4.5M +0.51

Player dossierPremier Liga

DaniilFomin

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
Dynamo Moscow
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
29
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Fomin at €7.5M. Model A, which never saw Fomin during training, estimates €4.5M: the market value is 66% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.66. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €5.2M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.51A €4.5M▲ +0.36B €5.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
72
Minutes
5,505
Goals
10
Assists
7
Started
61/72
Min / app
76
Cards
14Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Fomin…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €7.5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €7.5MModel A €4.5M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Daniil Fomin's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 75th, Assists per 90 58th, Minutes, two years 91st, Starts 78th, Minutes, last 365 days 91st, European club minutes 30th75thGoals58thAssists91stMinutes78thStarts91stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Minutes, two years

Total club minutes in the two-year window: how much the player was used.

5,505 this player2,607 midfielder median91st percentile

451peer deciles · median line · this player ●9,624

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Jan 2016
Peak
€9M
Dec 2021
Model target
€7.5M
May 2026
Valuations
26
4 club changes
May 2026€7.5MDynamo MoscowValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €7.5M, Dynamo Moscow. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-01-23€100kFC Krasnodar 2
2016-12-02€125kFC Krasnodar 2
2017-06-01€150kFC Krasnodar 2
2017-10-02€250kOlimpiets Nizhniy Novgorod
2017-12-05€400kOlimpiets Nizhniy Novgorod
2018-06-06€500kOlimpiets Nizhniy Novgorod
2018-12-20€500kFC Nizhniy Novgorod
2019-06-14€750kFC Nizhniy Novgorod
2019-09-10€1MFC Ufa
2019-12-23€2.5MFC Ufa
2020-04-08€2MFC Ufa
2020-07-29€3.5MFC Ufa
2020-12-29€4.5MDynamo Moscow
2021-04-13€5MDynamo Moscow
2021-05-26€6MDynamo Moscow
2021-12-29€9MDynamo Moscow
2022-06-02€9MDynamo Moscow
2022-11-21€9MDynamo Moscow
2023-04-13€8MDynamo Moscow
2023-06-14€8MDynamo Moscow
2023-12-13€7.5MDynamo Moscow
2024-06-04€8MDynamo Moscow
2024-12-12€8MDynamo Moscow
2025-06-04€8MDynamo Moscow
2025-12-16€8MDynamo Moscow
2026-05-26€7.5MDynamo Moscow

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.506

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 92% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€7.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 74% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€7.5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Fomin appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).