FairValue

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Portrait of Gonzalo Villar

Gonzalo

Villar

CMSpain · Elche CF

№ 398163Emerging €2.4M −0.27

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierLaLiga

GonzaloVillar

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club
Elche CF
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
28
Height
181 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Villar at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Villar during training, estimates €2.4M: the market value is 24% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.31. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.6M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.27A €2.4M▲ +0.14B €1.6M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
15
Minutes
744
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
8/15
Min / app
50
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Villar…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €2.4M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Gonzalo Villar's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 63rd, Assists per 90 8th, Minutes, two years 7th, Starts 26th, Minutes, last 365 days 21st, European club minutes 63rd63rdGoals8thAssists7thMinutes26thStarts21stRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

3% this player0% midfielder median63rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2017
Peak
€15M
Mar 2021
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
26
8 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MElche CFValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Elche CF. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-17€50kValencia Mestalla
2018-01-01€100kValencia Mestalla
2018-05-30€200kValencia Mestalla
2018-09-17€200kElche CF
2019-02-19€300kElche CF
2019-06-29€300kElche CF
2019-12-20€700kElche CF
2020-02-11€3MAS Roma
2020-04-08€2.7MAS Roma
2020-08-25€3MAS Roma
2020-12-29€10MAS Roma
2021-03-23€15MAS Roma
2021-06-03€15MAS Roma
2021-10-14€14MAS Roma
2021-12-28€10MAS Roma
2022-03-21€7.5MGetafe CF
2022-06-03€5MGetafe CF
2022-11-11€4.5MUC Sampdoria
2023-06-13€2.8MGetafe CF
2023-12-22€2.8MGranada CF
2024-06-07€3MGranada CF
2024-12-13€3MGranada CF
2025-03-27€2MGranada CF
2025-06-24€2MGranada CF
2025-12-22€1.8MGNK Dinamo Zagreb
2026-06-05€1.8MElche CF

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.270

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 25% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 44% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Villar appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).