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Portrait of Harvey Barnes

Harvey

Barnes

LWEngland · Newcastle United

№ 398065World Class €40.8M −0.24

Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierPremier League

HarveyBarnes

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Newcastle United
League
Premier League
Nationality
England
Age
28
Height
182 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Barnes at €32M. Model A, which never saw Barnes during training, estimates €40.8M: the market value is 22% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.28. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €47M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.24A €40.8M▼ −0.38B €47M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
93
Minutes
5,302
Goals
25
Assists
11
Started
53/93
Min / app
57
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Barnes…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €32M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €32MModel A €40.8M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Harvey Barnes's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 80th, Assists per 90 65th, Minutes, two years 93rd, Starts 47th, Minutes, last 365 days 98th, European club minutes 78th80thGoals65thAssists93rdMinutes47thStarts98thRecent78thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Minutes, last 365 days

Club minutes in the final year of the window: recent involvement, or the absence of it.

3,357 this player1,301 attacker median98th percentile

0peer deciles · median line · this player ●4,703

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Apr 2017
Peak
€35M
Mar 2021
Model target
€32M
Jun 2026
Valuations
22
4 club changes
Jun 2026€32MNewcastle UnitedValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €32M, Newcastle United. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-04-21€100kMilton Keynes Dons
2017-09-18€250kBarnsley FC
2018-09-24€1.5MWest Bromwich Albion
2019-03-05€7MLeicester City
2019-06-13€12MLeicester City
2019-12-10€22MLeicester City
2020-04-08€17.5MLeicester City
2020-07-30€22MLeicester City
2020-10-13€28MLeicester City
2021-03-18€35MLeicester City
2021-06-08€35MLeicester City
2021-12-23€32MLeicester City
2022-06-15€32MLeicester City
2022-11-03€32MLeicester City
2023-06-20€35MLeicester City
2023-12-19€35MNewcastle United
2024-05-27€35MNewcastle United
2024-12-16€35MNewcastle United
2025-03-18€30MNewcastle United
2025-05-30€35MNewcastle United
2025-12-09€32MNewcastle United
2026-06-03€32MNewcastle United

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.243

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 78% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 94% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€32MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Barnes appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).