FairValue

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Dani

Cárdenas

GKSpain · Rayo Vallecano

№ 397676Emerging €2M −0.12

Player dossierLaLiga

DaniCárdenas

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
Rayo Vallecano
League
LaLiga
Nationality
Spain
Age
29
Height
186 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
5 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Cárdenas at €1.8M. Model A, which never saw Cárdenas during training, estimates €2M: the market value is 11% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.12. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.2M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.12A €2M▲ +0.43B €1.2M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
18
Minutes
1,650
Started
18/18
Min / app
92
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Cárdenas…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.8M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.8MModel A €2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Dani Cárdenas's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 32nd, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 31st, European club minutes 32nd32ndMinutes62ndStarts31stRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2016
Peak
€2M
Mar 2023
Model target
€1.8M
Jun 2026
Valuations
24
2 club changes
Jun 2026€1.8MRayo VallecanoValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.8M, Rayo Vallecano. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-08-01€50kAtlético Levante UD
2017-02-02€50kAtlético Levante UD
2017-06-05€50kAtlético Levante UD
2018-10-31€200kAtlético Levante UD
2019-02-19€200kAtlético Levante UD
2019-06-29€200kAtlético Levante UD
2019-09-10€200kAtlético Levante UD
2020-02-11€200kAtlético Levante UD
2020-10-08€300kAtlético Levante UD
2021-01-05€600kLevante UD
2021-06-10€600kLevante UD
2021-10-13€700kLevante UD
2021-12-30€800kLevante UD
2022-03-21€1.5MLevante UD
2022-06-03€1.5MLevante UD
2022-12-29€1.5MLevante UD
2023-03-24€2MLevante UD
2023-06-14€2MLevante UD
2023-12-22€1.8MRayo Vallecano
2024-06-07€1.8MRayo Vallecano
2024-12-27€1.8MRayo Vallecano
2025-06-09€1.8MRayo Vallecano
2025-12-12€1.8MRayo Vallecano
2026-06-05€1.8MRayo Vallecano

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.117

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

LaLiga509 players · median €4M

Valued above 25% of the 509 LaLiga players.

€100k€1M€10M€100M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 58% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.8MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Cárdenas appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).