FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Artem

Kozak

RMUkraine · FC Oleksandriya

№ 396530Emerging €528k −0.05

Player dossierPremier Liha

ArtemKozak

RMRight MidfieldMidfield

Club
FC Oleksandriya
League
Premier Liha
Nationality
Ukraine
Age
27
Height
180 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
18 Dec 2025

Reading the valuation

The market values Kozak at €500k. Model A, which never saw Kozak during training, estimates €528k: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €939k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.05A €528k▼ −0.63B €939k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
48
Minutes
2,598
Goals
3
Assists
3
Started
31/48
Min / app
54
Cards
4Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Kozak…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €500k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €500kModel A €528k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Artem Kozak's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 57th, Assists per 90 54th, Minutes, two years 50th, Starts 41st, Minutes, last 365 days 39th, European club minutes 63rd57thGoals54thAssists50thMinutes41stStarts39thRecent63rdEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

3% this player0% midfielder median63rd percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€100k
Mar 2019
Peak
€800k
Jun 2024
Model target
€500k
Dec 2025
Valuations
15
4 club changes
Dec 2025€500kFC OleksandriyaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Dec 2025: €500k, FC Oleksandriya. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-03-22€100kArsenal Kyiv
2019-06-20€200kArsenal Kyiv
2020-01-08€100kKarpaty Lviv
2020-10-05€75kChornomorets Odesa
2020-12-05€50kChornomorets Odesa
2021-06-17€100kChornomorets Odesa
2021-12-06€200kPolissya Zhytomyr
2022-05-18€200kPolissya Zhytomyr
2022-12-06€250kPolissya Zhytomyr
2023-06-21€350kPolissya Zhytomyr
2023-12-11€600kPolissya Zhytomyr
2024-06-06€800kPolissya Zhytomyr
2024-12-17€600kFC Oleksandriya
2025-06-10€700kFC Oleksandriya
2025-12-18€500kFC Oleksandriya

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.055

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liha414 players · median €400k

Valued above 52% of the 414 Premier Liha players.

€50k€200k€1M€5M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 16% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€500kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Kozak appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).