FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Rafik

Guitane

RWAlgeria · GD Estoril Praia

№ 394328Established €1.7M +1.05

Player dossierLiga Portugal

RafikGuitane

RWRight WingerAttack

Club
GD Estoril Praia
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Algeria
Age
27
Height
170 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Guitane at €5M. Model A, which never saw Guitane during training, estimates €1.7M: the market value is 187% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.87. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.9M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.05A €1.7M▲ +0.56B €2.9M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
53
Minutes
2,738
Goals
3
Assists
9
Started
31/53
Min / app
52
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Guitane…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €1.7M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Rafik Guitane's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 14th, Assists per 90 89th, Minutes, two years 62nd, Starts 49th, Minutes, last 365 days 68th, European club minutes 59th14thGoals89thAssists62ndMinutes49thStarts68thRecent59thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.30 this player0.15 attacker median89th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€150k
Mar 2017
Peak
€5M
May 2018
Model target
€5M
May 2026
Valuations
23
6 club changes
May 2026€5MGD Estoril PraiaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €5M, GD Estoril Praia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-03-20€150kLe Havre AC
2017-06-15€150kLe Havre AC
2018-05-16€5MLe Havre AC
2018-12-17€5MStade Rennais FC
2019-06-03€5MStade Rennais FC
2019-12-19€4MStade Rennais FC
2020-03-13€3MStade Rennais FC
2020-04-08€2.7MStade Rennais FC
2020-08-17€2.7MCS Marítimo
2021-01-28€2.7MCS Marítimo
2021-05-21€2.5MCS Marítimo
2021-12-27€2MCS Marítimo
2022-05-31€2MCS Marítimo
2022-11-02€1.5MStade Reims
2023-06-16€1MGD Estoril Praia
2023-12-27€3.5MGD Estoril Praia
2024-03-08€4MGD Estoril Praia
2024-06-06€5MGD Estoril Praia
2024-12-19€5MSC Braga
2025-05-30€4MGD Estoril Praia
2025-12-18€3.5MGD Estoril Praia
2026-03-19€5MGD Estoril Praia
2026-05-28€5MGD Estoril Praia

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.053

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 76% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 64% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Guitane appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).