Tommaso

Pobega

CMItaly · Bologna FC 1909

№ 392538Established €9.1M −0.13

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Image: FootyLogos

Player dossierSerie A

TommasoPobega

CMCentral MidfieldMidfield

Club: Bologna FC 1909
League: Serie A
Nationality: Italy
Age: 26
Height: 188 cm
Foot: Left
Valued: 29 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Pobega at €8M. Model A, which never saw Pobega during training, estimates €9.1M: the market value is 12% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.14. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €8.8M, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).

Apps: 68
Minutes: 3,748
Goals: 8
Assists: 5
Started: 42/68
Min / app: 55
Cards: 10Y 1R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Pobega…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €8M

Checking API

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

20% this player0% midfielder median84th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation: €50k; Oct 2016
Peak: €18M; Nov 2022
Model target: €8M; May 2026
Valuations: 22; 6 club changes

May 2026€8MBologna FC 1909Valuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €8M, Bologna FC 1909. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table

Date	Market value	Club
2016-10-31	€50k	Milan Primavera
2017-05-18	€50k	Milan Primavera
2018-06-30	€75k	Milan Primavera
2018-12-14	€100k	Ternana Calcio
2019-06-20	€200k	Ternana Calcio
2019-12-30	€2.2M	Pordenone Calcio
2020-04-08	€2M	Pordenone Calcio
2020-08-21	€4.5M	Pordenone Calcio
2020-12-29	€5M	Spezia Calcio
2021-06-03	€6M	Spezia Calcio
2021-10-14	€8M	Torino FC
2021-12-28	€14M	Torino FC
2022-06-07	€16M	Torino FC
2022-11-11	€18M	AC Milan
2023-03-21	€15M	AC Milan
2023-06-15	€14M	AC Milan
2023-12-20	€12M	AC Milan
2024-06-05	€10M	AC Milan
2024-12-18	€10M	Bologna FC 1909
2025-06-17	€9M	Bologna FC 1909
2025-12-23	€9M	Bologna FC 1909
2026-05-29	€8M	Bologna FC 1909

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group: UEFA
Population gap, Model A: +0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A: −0.130

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Serie A507 players · median €5.5M

Valued above 60% of the 507 Serie A players.

See them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 74% of the 1,687 midfielders.

See them in the Explorer →

Where Pobega appears

TerminalSerie A in the Player Explorer
TerminalSerie A on the League Landscape

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).