FairValue

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Hjalmar

Ekdal

CBSweden · Burnley FC

№ 392179Established €12.2M −0.89

Player dossierPremier League

HjalmarEkdal

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Burnley FC
League
Premier League
Nationality
Sweden
Age
27
Height
187 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Ekdal at €5M. Model A, which never saw Ekdal during training, estimates €12.2M: the market value is 59% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.43. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.3M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.89A €12.2M▲ +1.36B €1.3M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
36
Minutes
3,009
Goals
0
Assists
1
Started
33/36
Min / app
84
Cards
3Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Ekdal…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €5M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €5MModel A €12.2M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Hjalmar Ekdal's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 44th, Minutes, two years 53rd, Starts 75th, Minutes, last 365 days 51st, European club minutes 30th18thGoals44thAssists53rdMinutes75thStarts51stRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

92% this player83% defender median75th percentile

18%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€125k
Jan 2019
Peak
€8M
Jun 2023
Model target
€5M
Jun 2026
Valuations
18
6 club changes
Jun 2026€5MBurnley FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €5M, Burnley FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2019-01-16€125kIK Frej Täby
2020-08-05€400kIK Sirius
2020-12-10€600kHammarby IF
2021-06-09€1.2MDjurgårdens IF
2021-09-17€1.5MDjurgårdens IF
2021-12-17€2MDjurgårdens IF
2022-06-24€2.5MDjurgårdens IF
2022-09-02€3.2MDjurgårdens IF
2022-12-14€3.5MDjurgårdens IF
2023-03-24€4MBurnley FC
2023-06-01€8MBurnley FC
2023-12-19€7MBurnley FC
2024-05-27€7MBurnley FC
2024-12-30€6.5MBurnley FC
2025-03-28€5MFC Groningen
2025-05-28€4.5MFC Groningen
2025-12-09€6MBurnley FC
2026-06-03€5MBurnley FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.889

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 21% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 70% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€5MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Ekdal appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).