FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Antonis

Tsiftsis

GKGreece · PAOK Thessaloniki

№ 390539Emerging €2.1M −0.57

Player dossierSuper League

AntonisTsiftsis

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
PAOK Thessaloniki
League
Super League
Nationality
Greece
Age
26
Height
191 cm
Foot
Both
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tsiftsis at €1.2M. Model A, which never saw Tsiftsis during training, estimates €2.1M: the market value is 44% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.77. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €2.8M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.57A €2.1M▼ −0.84B €2.8M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
28
Minutes
2,409
Started
25/28
Min / app
86
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tsiftsis…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1.2M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1.2MModel A €2.1M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Antonis Tsiftsis's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 44th, Starts 6th, Minutes, last 365 days 62nd, European club minutes 87th44thMinutes6thStarts62ndRecent87thEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

22% this player0% goalkeeper median87th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●86%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2017
Peak
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Model target
€1.2M
Jun 2026
Valuations
21
3 club changes
Jun 2026€1.2MPAOK ThessalonikiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €1.2M, PAOK Thessaloniki. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2017-08-21€50kAsteras Tripolis
2017-12-18€100kAsteras Tripolis
2018-05-22€150kAsteras Tripolis
2018-12-07€150kAsteras Tripolis
2019-05-21€150kAsteras Tripolis
2019-12-18€150kAsteras Tripolis
2020-08-04€150kAsteras Tripolis
2021-02-12€200kAsteras Tripolis
2021-05-30€400kAsteras Tripolis
2021-11-01€400kAsteras Tripolis
2022-06-09€600kAsteras Tripolis
2022-11-07€500kAsteras Tripolis
2023-05-22€500kAsteras Tripolis
2023-12-29€400kRaków Częstochowa
2024-05-30€450kAsteras Tripolis
2024-09-26€500kPAOK Thessaloniki
2024-12-18€500kPAOK Thessaloniki
2025-05-23€500kPAOK Thessaloniki
2025-12-12€600kPAOK Thessaloniki
2026-03-06€800kPAOK Thessaloniki
2026-06-04€1.2MPAOK Thessaloniki

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.572

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Super League356 players · median €600k

Valued above 69% of the 356 Super League players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 52% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1.2MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tsiftsis appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).