FairValue

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Jandro

Orellana

DMSpain · GD Estoril Praia

№ 388548Emerging €966k +0.03

Player dossierLiga Portugal

JandroOrellana

DMDefensive MidfieldMidfield

Club
GD Estoril Praia
League
Liga Portugal
Nationality
Spain
Age
25
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
28 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Orellana at €1M. Model A, which never saw Orellana during training, estimates €966k: the market value is 4% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.04. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €790k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.03A €966k▲ +0.24B €790k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
42
Minutes
2,333
Goals
1
Assists
2
Started
28/42
Min / app
56
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Orellana…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €1M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €1MModel A €966k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,687 midfielders

Jandro Orellana's percentiles among midfielders: Goals per 90 28th, Assists per 90 42nd, Minutes, two years 44th, Starts 45th, Minutes, last 365 days 42nd, European club minutes 30th28thGoals42ndAssists44thMinutes45thStarts42ndRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the midfielder median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

67% this player69% midfielder median45th percentile

7%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€300k
Jul 2018
Peak
€2M
Jan 2021
Model target
€1M
May 2026
Valuations
16
3 club changes
May 2026€1MGD Estoril PraiaValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €1M, GD Estoril Praia. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2018-07-14€300kFC Barcelona U19
2019-09-10€300kFC Barcelona B
2020-02-11€300kFC Barcelona B
2020-10-08€500kFC Barcelona B
2021-01-08€2MFC Barcelona B
2021-06-30€2MFC Barcelona B
2021-12-30€2MFC Barcelona B
2022-06-29€1.5MFC Barcelona B
2022-12-29€1.5MFC Andorra
2023-06-14€1.5MFC Andorra
2023-12-20€1.2MFC Andorra
2024-06-24€1MFC Andorra
2024-12-19€1.2MGD Estoril Praia
2025-05-30€1MGD Estoril Praia
2025-12-18€1MGD Estoril Praia
2026-05-28€1MGD Estoril Praia

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.035

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Liga Portugal423 players · median €1M

Valued above 42% of the 423 Liga Portugal players.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Midfielders, all leagues1,687 players · median €2M

Valued above 32% of the 1,687 midfielders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€1MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Orellana appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).