FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Tom

Vandenberghe

GKBelgium · KAA Gent

№ 387990Emerging €264k −0.06

Player dossierPro League

TomVandenberghe

GKGoalkeeperGoalkeeper

Club
KAA Gent
League
Pro League
Nationality
Belgium
Age
33
Height
190 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
4 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Vandenberghe at €250k. Model A, which never saw Vandenberghe during training, estimates €264k: the market value is 5% below that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.06. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €441k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▼ −0.06A €264k▼ −0.57B €441k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
12
Minutes
1,080
Started
12/12
Min / app
90
Cards
0Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Vandenberghe…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €264k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 485 goalkeepers

Tom Vandenberghe's percentiles among goalkeepers: Minutes, two years 20th, Starts 62nd, Minutes, last 365 days 2nd, European club minutes 32nd20thMinutes62ndStarts2ndRecent32ndEurope

Dashed ring: the goalkeeper median (50th percentile)

Starts

Share of appearances started rather than entered from the bench.

100% this player100% goalkeeper median62nd percentile

70%peer deciles · median line · this player ●100%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Oct 2015
Peak
€750k
Dec 2023
Model target
€250k
Jun 2026
Valuations
16
2 club changes
Jun 2026€250kKAA GentValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €250k, KAA Gent. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-10-28€50kKMSK Deinze (-2024)
2020-08-20€100kKMSK Deinze (-2024)
2020-10-21€100kKMSK Deinze (-2024)
2021-10-13€200kKMSK Deinze (-2024)
2022-01-13€250kKMSK Deinze (-2024)
2022-04-19€400kKMSK Deinze (-2024)
2022-11-04€300kKV Kortrijk
2023-03-22€575kKV Kortrijk
2023-06-09€650kKV Kortrijk
2023-12-19€750kKV Kortrijk
2024-06-04€600kKV Kortrijk
2024-10-02€450kKV Kortrijk
2024-12-11€400kKV Kortrijk
2025-06-12€400kKAA Gent
2025-12-10€300kKAA Gent
2026-06-04€250kKAA Gent

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
−0.056

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Pro League350 players · median €1.8M

Valued above 1% of the 350 Pro League players.

€100k€750k€5M€30M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Goalkeepers, all leagues485 players · median €1M

Valued above 13% of the 485 goalkeepers.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Vandenberghe appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).