FairValue

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  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
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Scott

Tiffoney

LWScotland · Kilmarnock FC

№ 387579Emerging €228k +0.09

Player dossierPremiership

ScottTiffoney

LWLeft WingerAttack

Club
Kilmarnock FC
League
Premiership
Nationality
Scotland
Age
27
Height
176 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
20 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Tiffoney at €250k. Model A, which never saw Tiffoney during training, estimates €228k: the market value is 9% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.09. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €1.4M, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.09A €228k▼ −1.74B €1.4M
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
45
Minutes
2,191
Goals
6
Assists
4
Started
24/45
Min / app
49
Cards
2Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Tiffoney…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €250k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €250kModel A €228k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 1,583 attackers

Scott Tiffoney's percentiles among attackers: Goals per 90 47th, Assists per 90 57th, Minutes, two years 49th, Starts 40th, Minutes, last 365 days 19th, European club minutes 28th47thGoals57thAssists49thMinutes40thStarts19thRecent28thEurope

Dashed ring: the attacker median (50th percentile)

Assists per 90

Club assists per 90 minutes in the same window.

0.16 this player0.15 attacker median57th percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.73

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Nov 2016
Peak
€400k
May 2024
Model target
€250k
May 2026
Valuations
17
7 club changes
May 2026€250kKilmarnock FCValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €250k, Kilmarnock FC. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-11-03€50kGreenock Morton FC U20
2018-01-25€100kGreenock Morton FC
2019-01-03€100kGreenock Morton FC
2019-08-20€200kLivingston FC
2020-02-05€175kAyr United FC
2021-01-18€300kLivingston FC
2021-06-28€250kLivingston FC
2021-12-31€275kPartick Thistle FC
2022-05-31€350kPartick Thistle FC
2022-12-13€350kPartick Thistle FC
2023-06-26€350kPartick Thistle FC
2023-12-05€350kDundee FC
2024-05-30€400kDundee FC
2024-12-03€300kDundee FC
2025-06-17€300kDundee FC
2025-12-10€250kKilmarnock FC
2026-05-20€250kKilmarnock FC

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.091

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premiership311 players · median €400k

Valued above 32% of the 311 Premiership players.

€20k€150k€1M€7.5M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Attackers, all leagues1,583 players · median €2.5M

Valued above 6% of the 1,583 attackers.

€20k€300k€5M€75M€250kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Tiffoney appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).