FairValue

Checking model

Esc
  • EnvironmentOverviewWhat FairValue measures, what it found, where to go next.
  • EnvironmentTerminalExplore, compare and track players; market, league and model views.
  • EnvironmentStoriesValuations, head-to-heads and research findings, told as stories.
  • TerminalPlayer ExplorerSearch, filter and sort the player export.
  • TerminalComparison StudioTwo to four players on one scale.
  • TerminalWatchlistsNamed collections, kept in this browser.
  • TerminalMarket LandscapeHow observed value is distributed, and where the model drifts.

↑ ↓ to move · Enter to open · Esc to closeLoading player index…

Igor

Julio

CBBrazil · Brighton & Hove Albion

№ 380350Elite €3.6M +1.03

Player dossierPremier League

IgorJulio

CBCentre-BackDefender

Club
Brighton & Hove Albion
League
Premier League
Nationality
Brazil
Age
28
Height
188 cm
Foot
Left
Valued
3 Jun 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Julio at €10M. Model A, which never saw Julio during training, estimates €3.6M: the market value is 179% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×2.79. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is larger than its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €726k, further from the market. Model B is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07): league and club explain much of how the market prices players.

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +1.03A €3.6M▲ +2.62B €726k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
19
Minutes
1,243
Goals
0
Assists
0
Started
13/19
Min / app
65
Cards
5Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Julio…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €10M

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €10MModel A €3.6M

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Igor Julio's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 18th, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 17th, Starts 25th, Minutes, last 365 days 5th, European club minutes 30th18thGoals17thAssists17thMinutes25thStarts5thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

European club minutes

Share of minutes played in UEFA club competitions.

0% this player0% defender median30th percentile

0%peer deciles · median line · this player ●85%

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€75k
Jul 2016
Peak
€22M
Dec 2024
Model target
€10M
Jun 2026
Valuations
29
8 club changes
Jun 2026€10MBrighton & Hove AlbionValuation the model is trained to reproduce

Jun 2026: €10M, Brighton & Hove Albion. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2016-07-05€75kFC Liefering
2016-12-03€250kFC Liefering
2017-05-27€400kFC Liefering
2018-01-02€400kRed Bull Salzburg
2018-06-14€700kWolfsberger AC
2018-10-25€1MAustria Vienna
2018-12-19€1.5MAustria Vienna
2019-06-03€1.5MAustria Vienna
2019-10-08€3MSPAL
2019-12-12€3MSPAL
2020-02-11€5MACF Fiorentina
2020-04-08€4.5MACF Fiorentina
2020-08-25€5MACF Fiorentina
2020-12-29€4.5MACF Fiorentina
2021-06-03€5MACF Fiorentina
2021-12-28€5MACF Fiorentina
2022-03-15€8MACF Fiorentina
2022-06-07€14MACF Fiorentina
2022-11-11€11MACF Fiorentina
2023-06-15€10MACF Fiorentina
2023-10-09€15MBrighton & Hove Albion
2023-12-19€17MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-05-27€17MBrighton & Hove Albion
2024-12-16€22MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-05-30€20MBrighton & Hove Albion
2025-10-17€18MWest Ham United
2025-12-09€15MWest Ham United
2026-03-09€12MBrighton & Hove Albion
2026-06-03€10MBrighton & Hove Albion

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
non-UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+1.025

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier League555 players · median €18M

Valued above 32% of the 555 Premier League players.

€150k€1M€7.5M€50M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 81% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€10MSee them in the Explorer →

Where Julio appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).