FairValue

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Kirill

Zaika

RBRussia · FC Sochi

№ 379181Emerging €258k +0.15

Player dossierPremier Liga

KirillZaika

RBRight-BackDefender

Club
FC Sochi
League
Premier Liga
Nationality
Russia
Age
33
Height
168 cm
Foot
Right
Valued
26 May 2026

Reading the valuation

The market values Zaika at €300k. Model A, which never saw Zaika during training, estimates €258k: the market value is 16% above that estimate.

That is a factor of ×1.16. Model A's typical held-out miss is ×1.50 either way, so this gap is within its usual error.

Without league and club, Model B estimates €265k, closer to the market here, although it is usually further off (typical miss ×2.07).

A gap describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what the player is worth.

▲ +0.15A €258k▲ +0.12B €265k
Pitch length is a log value scale fitted to this player's figures. ● observed · ◇ Model A · dashed ◇ Model B · each arc is a residual, log(observed) − log(estimate).
Apps
31
Minutes
1,866
Goals
1
Assists
0
Started
18/31
Min / app
60
Cards
6Y 0R

Club matches, two years to the valuation date

The Valuation Journey

What moves Model A

Asking the prediction API to explain Model A for Zaika…

SHAP describes the model's arithmetic for this player's inputs, not what causes market value. Model B can be explained only by the live service; Model A also has a published explanation for the research players.

Model A vs Model B against the observed €300k

Checking API
EmergingEstablishedEliteWorld Class€2M€10M€30M€100k€1M€100MMarket €300kModel A €258k

Asking the prediction API…

Held-out estimates come from cross-validation, with this player outside the training data: the honest comparison. Served models were refitted on every player, this one included, so they sit closer to the market. Shaded band: Model A's typical miss (×1.50 either way).

Player traitspercentiles vs 2,065 defenders

Kirill Zaika's percentiles among defenders: Goals per 90 62nd, Assists per 90 17th, Minutes, two years 31st, Starts 13th, Minutes, last 365 days 57th, European club minutes 30th62ndGoals17thAssists31stMinutes13thStarts57thRecent30thEurope

Dashed ring: the defender median (50th percentile)

Goals per 90

Club goals per 90 minutes played in the two years to the valuation date.

0.05 this player0.03 defender median62nd percentile

0.00peer deciles · median line · this player ●0.41

No passing, progression or defensive actions exist in the dataset, so no trait claims to measure them.

Valuation history every Transfermarkt valuation on record

First valuation
€50k
Aug 2015
Peak
€1.5M
Jun 2021
Model target
€300k
May 2026
Valuations
26
1 club change
May 2026€300kFC SochiValuation the model is trained to reproduce

May 2026: €300k, FC Sochi. Dotted lines mark the €2M, €10M and €30M tier boundaries.

Show as a table
DateMarket valueClub
2015-08-26€50kFC Khimki
2016-07-01€50kFC Khimki
2016-10-11€100kFC Khimki
2016-12-28€200kFC Khimki
2017-06-01€300kFC Khimki
2018-06-06€400kFC Khimki
2018-12-20€400kFC Sochi
2019-06-14€400kFC Sochi
2019-12-23€250kFC Sochi
2020-03-30€600kFC Sochi
2020-04-08€475kFC Sochi
2020-07-29€800kFC Sochi
2020-12-29€800kFC Sochi
2021-04-13€1MFC Sochi
2021-06-02€1.5MFC Sochi
2021-12-29€1.5MFC Sochi
2022-06-02€1.5MFC Sochi
2022-11-21€1.2MFC Sochi
2023-06-14€900kFC Sochi
2023-10-05€800kFC Sochi
2023-12-13€700kFC Sochi
2024-06-04€600kFC Sochi
2024-12-04€500kFC Sochi
2025-06-02€450kFC Sochi
2025-12-16€350kFC Sochi
2026-05-26€300kFC Sochi

Audit context group-level, not about this player

Audit group
UEFA
Population gap, Model A
+0.093 95% CI +0.063 to +0.124
This player, market vs held-out A
+0.151

The group comes from first-listed citizenship and is never a model input. Across the population, non-UEFA players' market values sit about 10% above Model A's held-out estimates, relative to UEFA players in the same leagues. One player's residual says nothing about that pattern (typical miss ×1.50), and none of it is evidence of discrimination: the target may itself be biased. Open the Fairness Audit

In context observed value among comparable players in this build

All players in the Terminal →

Premier Liga412 players · median €1M

Valued above 5% of the 412 Premier Liga players.

€50k€300k€2M€15M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Defenders, all leagues2,065 players · median €2M

Valued above 9% of the 2,065 defenders.

€20k€200k€2M€20M€300kSee them in the Explorer →

Where Zaika appears

Watchlists and the comparison tray are kept in this browser only.

Near this valuation closest observed values: same league, then same position

Counts and ranks of observed Transfermarkt values only; model errors are never ranked here. Full player export: Every player in the modelling population (D-011).